New Jersey will lose 13th seat in next Congress

Though the state’s population increased from 2000 to 2010, New Jersey’s growth was slower than that of many other states. Similar population changes resulted in New Jersey losing a seat after the 1980 and 1990 censuses.

Unlike many states, where state legislatures draw district lines that generally benefit the political party controlling state government, New Jersey has a 10-member independent redistricting commission composed of five Democratic and five Republican appointees. The state Supreme Court chooses a tiebreaking 11th member if the commission does not reach consensus.

Even so, the process is laced with politics for both parties, as both sides try to maximize the number of congressional districts in which their candidates can prevail.

“I would expect that there would be more tension than we’ve seen in past redistricting efforts,” said state Assemblyman Jay Webber, who also serves as chairman of the New Jersey Republican State Committee. “I think you can expect more political jousting this time,” he noted.

Others, however, are more optimistic about the process’ chances to reach consensus.

“It’s unlikely to be a big partisan battle like where it’s done through the legislature,” said Nolan McCarty, associate dean of the Wilson School. “There may still be plenty of partisanship ... but not like other states where the fight of redistricting can gridlock state government,” he said.

The redistricting commission’s members have already been selected, but the rest of the redistricting process is on hold until local figures are made available by the Census Bureau in coming months. Any action before the arrival of those figures would be “premature,” Webber said, adding that “it’s too early to speculate on what the lines would look like.”

McCarty said that Jon Runyan, a newly elected Republican from southern New Jersey who used to play football for the Philadelphia Eagles, may draw the short straw.

“The pattern seems to be that the person with the least seniority gets tossed overboard,” he explained.

Some Democrats, though, said Republicans may have the upper hand during the redistricting process.

“As I see it right now, the population growth seems to be in the Republican counties,” said Democratic state Sen. Shirley Turner, whose district includes Princeton. Accordingly, the Democrats could be left with one fewer district that they would be expected to win in 2012.

Several New Jersey political blogs have speculated that Rep. Rush Holt, a Democrat whose district includes Princeton, and Rep. Leonard Lance GS ’82, a Republican who represents the 7th Congressional District, may be pitted against one another in a fight between two powerful incumbents affiliated with the University.

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Lance, however, said such a scenario is unlikely.

“I think that [the districts of] both Congressman Holt and I have grown to a greater significance than the state as a whole,” Lance said, pointing to counties in the northeastern part of the state where population growth has been slower.

Turner, similarly, said she didn’t see Holt as threatened.

“The Princetons will probably remain intact, I believe,” Turner said, referring to the Township and Borough. “It may require Rush Holt giving up some of his district and picking up some Republican towns, but I don’t think it will disturb the Princetons,” she added.

Holt did not respond to a request for comment.