U. researchers publish model that predicts parasite survival
Elizabeth PaulA new study published in Ecology Letters by postdoctoral researcher Peter Molnar and ecology and evolutionary biology professor Andrew Dobson outlines a model predicting the survival of parasites in certain regions of the globe as climate change progresses. While scientists 20 years ago predicted climate change would cause parasitic disease to increase overall, Molnar said his model quantifies the idea that this picture is too simplistic. “To sum these complications up, it basically depends on what parasite you’re looking at, its life history parameters and where in the world you’re looking,” Molnar explained. Instead of a universal expansion of parasite populations, Molnar’s model predicts that under the influence of climate change, the future survival of parasites will depend on their thermal niche, or the range of temperatures in which a parasite can survive.