The panelists, among whom were officials from Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, focused on the many problems facing those three countries during the discussions, both titled “Determine Your Own Destiny.”
Regarding Afghanistan, the experts were split on whether the United States should focus more on development and humanitarian actions or prioritize security concerns and the fight against extremists.
The Middle East panel, which focused on Iraq and Iran, expressed a more optimistic tone than the Afghanistan panel. Panelists were hopeful about the future of Iraq’s new government but were split on how the United States should respond to Iran’s nuclear program.
The Afghanistan panel took place on Friday afternoon in Dodds Auditorium, with panelists discussing the potential aftermath of the U.S. military drawdown scheduled to begin in July 2011.
“We are just ending an important year in Afghanistan, which started last November with the initiation of President [Hamid] Karzai’s second term,” said Zahir Tanin, Afghanistan’s ambassador to the United Nations. “We’re beginning a transition from war to peace, a transition from an international guided process to an Afghan-led one.”
Panelists said that some of the major hurdles of this transition include corruption, drug trafficking, security and the influence of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries. In fact, though the panel’s stated focus was the question of Afghanistan’s future, much of the two-hour discussion dwelled on problems currently plaguing the country — with little consensus on solutions.
Johannes Chudoba, an adviser to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counter Narcotics and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, discussed his major concerns about current drug policy.
Opium production is financing the Afghan insurgency, Chudoba said, noting that the effect of increasing prices will counteract recent reductions in trafficking. “We’re almost certain to see production levels increase over the next few years,” he said.
The drug problem is compounded by a lack of credibility for both Afghanistan’s government and international actors, Chudoba said, citing a recent poll showing that three-quarters of Afghanis believe that working with foreign forces is wrong.
Georgetown University professor Carol Christine Fair argued that the 2009 presidential elections eroded already shaky trust in Afghanistan’s government. “We saw election fraud on an industrial strength,” she said.
Fair also expressed disappointment with U.S. policies that have indirectly provided financial support to the Taliban, pointing to “the criminality with which we have tried to do reconstruction” in Afghanistan.
Panelists also expressed concern with the often-negative influence of volatile neighbors like Iran and Pakistan. Some said they were frustrated by the starkly different strategies the United States employs regarding these two countries.
Fair, who has spent time living in Pakistan, said, “This makes me so flipping angry. We’ve given [Pakistan] $19 billion. They support the Taliban, which kill our troops. Al Qaeda isn’t killing our troops; the Pakistanis are. And nothing, absolutely nothing, changes this.”
Immediately following the Afghanistan discussion, those in attendance were invited to a dinner reception and keynote address by Karl Eikenberry, U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.
The address was billed as off the record, though Eikenberry decided to open with a prepared, on-the-record speech in which he lauded U.S. troops and expressed optimism about the country’s future.
The next morning’s three-and-a-half-hour discussion on the Middle East focused mostly on Iran’s nuclear program, the future stability of Iraq and other challenges facing the region.
Christopher Hill, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, headlined the panel, drawing a laugh from the audience with a lighthearted opening remark. “I’m here to talk about what was always called the bad war, with Afghanistan being the good war — although after hearing about your discussion I guess we’ll still call Iraq the bad war [and] Afghanistan the worse war.”
Despite challenges, panelists said, there are signs of hope for Iraq. One bright spot was the formation of a new government coalition last Thursday, nine months after elections were held. The government will be led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
When the discussion turned to Iran, speakers debated the conditions under which the United States should consider military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel, argued that Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. While preventing a greater Middle East war is a priority, preventing Iran’s nuclear capability ought to take precedence, Gardiner said.
But Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister and vice chancellor of Germany, interjected, saying that maintaining the second priority would be “a contradiction to the first, because [military action] would lead to a greater Middle East war.”
While there was little consensus on these pressing foreign policy topics, attendants said they appreciated the discussions.
“They were all very candid, which is very refreshing, for a change,” Rutgers graduate student Suzanne Levi-Sanchez said.
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