Hillary or Rudy? Alums weigh in on 2008 primaries

Rep. John Sarbanes '84 (D-Md.) is biding his time.

Sarbanes has been watching his Capitol Hill colleagues endorse 2008 presidential candidates since the primary campaign season commenced, but he has chosen not to throw his support behind a White House hopeful — yet.

"I'm very impressed with the Democratic field," he said in an interview with The Daily Princetonian. "I think we've got a lot of people with experience and judgment in the race, any one of which could make a very good president. Maybe that's why I'm content to be patient for a while and see how things turn out."

Though no Princeton alumni are seeking either party's 2008 presidential nomination, various University graduates with prominent places in the political world have weighed in on the race. But, especially in a competitive election season like the current one, it can be difficult for politicians to decide whom to support. Additionally, some politicians and professors question just how important endorsements are.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels '71, a Republican, publicly backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in February, citing their longtime friendship as a primary factor in his decision. "I want to make it very plain [that] I think ... the three frontrunners are all terrific," he said in a press conference in February. "I could gladly support any of them if nominated ... but there's a personal friendship and an admiration that I have for John McCain and the kind of American he's been, and I couldn't tell him that I wouldn't vote for him if I got the chance."

McCain and Daniels have known each other for 30 years, and the Arizona senator paid Daniels a visit just months before the endorsement, Daniels' press secretary Brad Rateike said in an interview.

Another alum supporting McCain is former Republican New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean, Sr. '57. As the former chairman of the 9/11 Commission, Kean said he appreciates McCain's national security credentials, including his support for the Commission's recommendations and a revamping of the United States' defense and intelligence systems.

During a press conference at Logan International Airport in Boston this month, Kean said these credentials make McCain "ready to be president."

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Kean and his commission have been critical of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a leading Republican presidential candidate, alleging he was inadequately prepared for the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center. But another Princeton alum, Sen. Kit Bond '60 (R-Mo.), has thrown his full support behind Giuliani, giving him his official endorsement.

"Mayor Rudy Giuliani has shown that he has the right vision for America, and he has demonstrated the executive leadership that has earned him great plaudits and high acclaim around the world," Bond, also a former Missouri governor, said in a press conference in early November. "I think it's time that we make America's mayor America's next president."

Meanwhile, New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer '81, a Democrat, has endorsed the candidate widely considered his own party's frontrunner for the nomination. In May, Spitzer lent his support to Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).

"When we look around the globe today," he said during a Clinton campaign, "when we look around our nation, we see crisis ... that needs somebody tall to stand up with pride and say, 'I am proud to lead this nation.' " Spitzer also praised Clinton for supporting healthcare, education and military reform, though he said her stances have been unpopular at times.

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Do endorsements matter?

Despite the prevalence of endorsements — Clinton leads the field with 71 congressional tips of the hat, while Republican candidate Mitt Romney is second with 33, according to the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call — their influence on electoral outcomes remains unclear.

In an interview with the 'Prince,' Rep. Jim Marshall '72 (D-Ga.) said endorsements are "not that important."

"People make up their own minds," he said. "But if people think really well of a particular person who is endorsing 'X,' that could make some difference in the perception of 'X.' "

"Endorsements can't hurt," he added, but "unless the politician [endorsing you] has more than a two-to-one approval rating, you might not want to spend money on a radio or television ad with that person touting you."

Furthermore, he said, politicians involved in their own tight races generally avoid weighing in on their colleagues' campaigns.

Wilson School professor David Lewis took a more positive view of endorsements' influence, however. "Endorsements, at this stage of the campaign, are very important," he said. "They're a signal to other party elites of a level of support and viability in the long run. Increasingly, modern nomination campaigns are endorsement derbies."

Endorsements are more important in the nomination stage than in the presidential election itself, he added.

Sarbanes took a middle view. "Endorsements are one ingredient of momentum, though they're certainly not the primary ingredient," he said. In his view, he added, support from people experienced in both the government and the private sector — those who "represent a cross-section of the different parts of life" — mean the most.

"People may not have a high opinion on Washington insiders," he said, explaining why he thinks endorsements from people outside the Beltway — governors, state legislators or individuals in the private sector — are more useful.

Lewis and Sarbanes said politicians offer endorsements for a variety of reasons. An endorser could have an ideological preference for one candidate, Lewis said, or feel that a certain presidential hopeful has the best chance of winning the general election.

Sometimes, Sarbanes said, "you make a calculation that if you get on board with one of the candidates, you'll get noticed." But, he added, he hopes endorsements arise more frequently out of genuine support and because "you bring a particular passion and enthusiasm for a particular candidate."