A day of primary importance

The week leading up to the New Hampshire presidential primaries may not have been a once-in-a-lifetime experience, but it was certainly close.

For the first time since 1928, neither an incumbent president nor current vice president was in the race. Going into New Hampshire, the Republican and Democratic nominations were up for grabs. The timeline for primaries has been compressed, and the candidates began campaigning much earlier than usual.

Preparing for the trip to New Hampshire for The Daily Princetonian, I was very aware of the race's exceptionality, which was reflected in the atmosphere I encountered across the state.

Campaign signs littered snow banks, and major intersections were crowded with volunteers holding signs and chanting their candidates' names. "Revolution! Ron Paul '08!" "Obama '08: Be a part of something great!" "Mac is back!"

The candidates were available in a manner most of the country never gets to experience. I was able to ask questions of candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), as well as former president Bill Clinton, who was campaigning for his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.). After a rally for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), I told former Sen. Bill Bradley '65 I was from the 'Prince.' He told me that "Princeton is for Obama," referring in part to the candidate's close ties to the University — his wife is Michelle Obama '85, and his brother-in-law is Craig Robinson '83.

And it is because I was there that I understand the press' puzzlement about Clinton's 2.6 percentage point victory over Obama. As reporters, columnists and pundits have discussed relentlessly in the two days since the New Hampshire returns, Obama was expected to win decisively.

My own observations in New Hampshire led me to similar expectations for Tuesday's votes. From what I saw at the two Clinton rallies and one Obama event I attended before the polls opened, the Obama crowd was larger and more engaged. As the Clinton rallies progressed, audience members left. Similarly, I saw crowd members leave a small Bill Clinton event before it ended. In contrast, very few people left before the end of the speech given by Michelle Obama. Add this to the fact that all the polls heavily favored Obama, and it was easy to believe the narrative of a stunning Obama victory.

But the press is now scrambling to find an explanation and a new narrative. Some have attributed it to Clinton's emotional moment the day before the primary. Others note that people who may be more likely to vote for her are also more likely to refuse polls. Scores of other theories abound. Whatever affected the results, it will be interesting to compare Obama's and Clinton's momentum going into the next two contests: a caucus in Nevada on Jan. 19 and the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26.

Meanwhile, Republicans have decamped to Michigan, a battleground which is already being portrayed in the media as a faceoff between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was born there, and McCain, who needs to show that he wasn't merely replaying his 2000 New Hampshire win.

Both races are still up for grabs. There probably won't be a clear direction until at least Feb. 5, "Super Duper Tuesday," when New Jersey, New York, California and more than a dozen other states vote. Even then, there may not be a clearcut candidate for both parties. That's just part of the exceptionality of this year's race.