Popular vote bill advances in N.J.

A New Jersey Assembly committee advanced a bill on Nov. 19 that would require the state's electors to cast their 15 Electoral College votes based on the winner of the national popular vote.

This move "could encourage more attention to New Jersey by presidential candidates," said Brandice Canes-Wrone, professor of politics and public affairs in the Wilson School. "[Candidates] don't have a great incentive to campaign hard in the state because our elections will generally go to the Democrats."

The bill is part of an interstate agreement that would go into effect if the measure is adopted by enough states to produce a majority of the 538 electoral votes. The compact would sidestep the current Electoral College system without requiring a constitutional amendment.

Maryland was first and only state so far to pass the measure, promising to give its 10 electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. Similar bills are pending in eight states and have been introduced in over 30 others.

Canes-Wrone said there is a "fairly low" chance that the measure will be enacted by enough states.

"There are a lot of states that benefit from the current situation," she said. States that are evenly split — like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania — garner a majority of the attention under the current political system. States with small populations could be more sidelined than they currently are under the Electoral College.

"It's not clear why those states would have any incentive to pass this type of a measure," Canes-Wrone said.

Wilson School professor David Lewis expressed doubt that states currently benefiting from the Electoral College system would support such a movement. "I would be surprised if this movement got too much traction," he said. "States that have a winner-take-all system and are competitive get more attention from candidates."

But changing the current electoral process might have general voter support. A 2007 national survey conducted by The Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation-Harvard University Survey Project indicated that 72 percent of voters, including 78 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of Republicans, support switching to a system in which the president is elected by a direct popular vote.

Canes-Wrone noted, however, that it has not been "clear that such overwhelming support would [exist] if ... voters in states that currently benefit were informed about what it is they would stand to lose were the change to be made."

College Republicans president Jon Fernandez '08 said in an email that "The College Republicans feel that the system that was set up over 200 years ago by our founders has served the country well, and we would disagree with any attempt to tamper with it."

Fernandez continued, "We feel that the Electoral College system enhances the status of minority interests and contributes to the political stability of the nation by encouraging a two-party system. Rather than focus on populated urban areas, candidates are forced to concentrate on any number of small states whose electoral votes could prove integral to a win."