After vote, Congress tilts right, professor says

Arguing that academia should pay more attention to U.S. midterm elections, Andrew Busch, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College, drew a large crowd of politically curious spectators to a lecture in the Friend Center yesterday.

"Historically, midterm elections have the potential of shifting the presidential field," Busch said, citing Woodrow Wilson, a member of the Class of 1879, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush as politicians who surfaced as a result of midterm elections.

Despite the phenomenon some have dubbed "Obama mania," Busch cautioned that the 2006 midterm elections have shifted "the center of gravity in the Democratic establishment" so that it "is against outsiders" such as Barack Obama.

Had the Democrats not done as well in the election, Busch said, there would have been more pressure on the party to look for candidates like Obama for the 2008 presidential contest.

Furthermore, Busch said, Democrats may now find it difficult to "rally for outside change." Voters who might have looked to the Democrats as a check against Republican power are now less likely to do so. In addition, the Democrats' regaining control may lead to less congressional productivity and more stalemates, Busch said.

He also observed that, in a stroke of irony, one could argue that "Congress is somehow more, on balance, conservative than it was before."

"The majority of Republicans who lost their house seat are Northeastern moderates or liberals," while many Democrats who gained house seats, especially in the Midwest, are rather conservative, Busch noted.

He added, however, that any conservative impulses will be tempered because "the most liberal Democratic members, as a result of seniority, will be chairing committees" in Congress.

Nov. 7 may also have enduring effects, Busch said, as the Democrats feel rejuvenated.

"It has effects on fundraising later, and it has effects on candidate recruitment later," he said, noting that Democratic fundraising has already risen significantly in the last month.

Busch attributed the Republican loss to issues such as the Iraq War, the Mark Foley scandal, general corruption concerns, social security and immigration.

In comparison to those in Washington, Busch said, candidates outside the Beltway may look better to American voters.

Get the best of the ‘Prince’ delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe now »

"I think anyone who is a state or local candidate may have been helped [by the midterm election]," Busch said in a response to an audience question. Explaining that the midterm election hurt mainstream congressional Republicans like Frist, Busch said that it may help those like McCain, who lie outside the spectrum of the "congressional Republican establishment."

Busch has written seven books about election politics in America, including "Horses in Midstream: U.S. Midterm Elections and their Consequences, 1894-1998."

The lecture was sponsored by the James Madison Program of American Ideals and Institutions as part of its series, "America's Founding and Future."