Return to realism

James Baker '52 is no stranger to the divide between realists and idealists.

And as far back as his senior year at Princeton, when he was writing his thesis on the rift in post-war Britain's Labour Party, Baker knew on which side he stood.

"Those who know me will not be surprised that I favored the approach of the realist," Baker recalled in his new memoir, "Work Hard, Study ... and Keep out of Politics!"

Now, more than 50 years later — after having served as White House chief of staff, secretary of state and special presidential envoy to the Middle East — Baker, 76, is co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group, charged with crafting a strategy for U.S. success in a war widely criticized as being fought with blind idealism.

"The issue in Iraq is that [the Bush administration's] reach exceeded their grasp," said Richard Erdman, a former U.S. ambassador to Algeria and now a lecturer at the Wilson School. Baker, however, "comes from a traditional school of foreign policy and is a realist," Erdman said. He relies on "pragmatism, not ideology."

"What is needed is a practical approach that recognizes what can be accomplished over the remaining two years left to the administration and that does not confuse longterm preferences with the immediate steps necessary to avoid a debacle," J. Stapleton Roy '56, who served in the State Department under Baker and was later U.S. ambassador to China, said in an email. "Mr. Baker will bring a tough-minded, no-nonsense approach to that task."

The 10-member Iraq Study Group has already met with dozens of experts ranging from the military to academia and has consulted with President Bush, Vice President Cheney and senior Democrats. Beginning today, the panel, co-chaired by former 9/11 Commission member Lee Hamilton, will meet in Washington for two days of deliberation in the hopes of crafting a "forward-looking assessment of the situation in Iraq." Their report is expected by mid-December.

The group, composed of five Democrats and five Republicans, includes former Supreme Court justice Sandra Day O'Connor and former CIA director Robert Gates, who resigned his commission recently when he was nominated to replace Donald Rumsfeld '54 as secretary of defense.

Though Baker — who played rugby and tennis at Princeton and was a member of Ivy Club — has drawn praise from some quarters, skepticism remains about how seriously the White House will take his group's recommendations. President Bush, who asked Baker to manage his campaign's ballot recount during the controversial Florida recount in the 2000 elections, has said "I look forward to seeing" the commission's report.

But the administration has begun its own parallel studies of Iraq strategy. The Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon are now conducting their own review and Tony Snow, the White House press secretary, said earlier this month that the president "will not make judgments because the Baker group says something" and won't "outsource this problem to the Baker commission."

Though "the president has no choice but to confide in and listen to Baker," said William Bader GS '64, a former assistant secretary of state in the Clinton Administration and former University faculty member, it remains in question whether the president will take Baker's advice.

"I doubt it," Bader said in an email, "for this is first president in my lifetime who has the rhetoric and the fierce certainty of an Old Testament God."

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But Roy, the former State Department official who served with Baker and is now the vice chairman at former secretary of state Henry Kissinger's consulting firm, is more optimistic.

"The midterm elections and the difficulties on the ground in the region seem already to have made the administration more receptive to new ideas, including possible changes in course," Roy said. "As a result, the task of persuasion will be less daunting than before."

Roy cautioned, however, that the administration's receptiveness will rest in large part on "the nature of the recommendations," some of which — especially a timetable for the withdrawal of troops — remain extremely controversial.

"Mr. Baker will be keenly attuned both to what is politically feasible and to the realities on the ground that will shape what the United States can do," Roy said.

The group is unlikely to recommend that a firm date be set for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, as some Democrats have been calling for, said Daniel Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and one of the experts consulted by the group.

More likely, Kurtzer said, is a recommendation that the United States open a dialogue about Iraq with neighboring Iran and Syria — a reversal of current administration policy, which has favored isolating both countries unless they take steps to comply with U.S. demands.

"Damascus and Tehran may be left holding the bag if America leaves," Kurtzer said, adding that "the argument for bringing them in is to test whether they might be able to help." He declined to discuss his own conversations with the commission.

Robert Einhorn GS '71, who worked on the State Department's policy planning staff under Baker, said that his experience taught him to expect prudence and strong determination from the former secretary of state.

"While pursuing his foreign policy objectives, he was always mindful of the need for domestic support," Einhorn said in an email. "[H]e worked hard at ensuring the necessary support at home."