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CIA agent discusses factors shaping future leadership

A senior CIA intelligence analyst stressed in a lecture yesterday evening that the policies leaders enact today shape the views and actions of generations to come.

The talk — titled "The Next Generation of World Leaders" — was based primarily on a 2002 CIA study about generational changes in political thought and their effects on future world leaders.

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"The real message we're trying to send to the policymakers [in Washington] is, what they're doing right now will have an effect on future generations," said the analyst, who asked to be referred to as "Betsy Q."

The study, similarly titled "The Next Generation of World Leaders: Emerging Traits and Tendencies," organized discussion panels of experts in academia, the business world and the intelligence community in an attempt to address issues of "leadership succession and generational change," according to a flyer distributed at the lecture.

Betsy said that the study had three goals: to help policymakers recognize the effects of policies implemented during the formative years of each generation in many countries, to deal with the lack of research in generational ideological change and to get leadership analysts to understand the tendencies of future leaders' behavior.

Though Betsy said that "generational perspectives do not explain all political behavior," the study showed that the political outlooks of a generation and its leaders were largely influenced by experiences and events that occurred during the generation's "formative years," the years from 17 to 25. The study also found and described trends in thinking and behavior among different generations in different countries that occurred as a result of such events.

How America is perceived and how it acts over the next few years will "create many of the formative experiences shaping emerging and subsequent generations," according to the study.

The lecture provided examples of trends among several different generations in a number of countries that play a large role in U.S. strategic interests. Betsy requested, however, that specific information be withheld from publication.

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Despite the far-reaching implications of the study, Betsy pointed out that its findings are just the beginning. "We just scratched the surface," she said. "We took the first cut to sensitize people to this issue."

After the presentation, she fielded questions on the study, possible job opportunities at the CIA and the CIA's changing role in today's world.

The lecture was held as part of the ongoing International Opportunities Week series and was sponsored by the Office of Career Services.

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