Wilson School panel's predictions vary on Senate race outcome

Although the latest polls and a noted journalist predict victory today for Democrat Frank Lautenberg in the New Jersey race for Senate, former Rep. Dick Zimmer said yesterday in a Wilson School panel discussion that Doug Forrester should not be counted out. The panel, moderated by public affairs professor Douglas Arnold, was in Dodds Auditorium yesterday afternoon.

Lautenberg, who stood in for incumbent Sen. Robert Torricelli after he withdrew from the race Sept. 30, leads by a comfortable margin in the latest polls.

Iver Peterson, a New York Times political reporter, said compared to some of this year's other Senate races, the New Jersey race is not particularly close.

Peterson, who has covered the race for the last two months, said Torricelli could have survived the ethics scandal if he had been more forthcoming. He said it is hard to gain name recognition in the state.

"In New Jersey, it's axiomatic that you run once to get known and you run twice to win," he said.

Peterson added that Lautenberg, a three-term senator, has capitalized on high-name recognition.

He predicted that Lautenberg would win today, but because the Republican base is energized, he said the margin of victory would be smaller than the latest poll numbers suggest. He said Forrester has made gains based on the candidate switch and Lautenberg's early refusal to debate.

Zimmer, the Republican challenger against Rep. Rush Holt in 2000, said because New Jersey is a "media black hole" with few television stations, Lautenberg is "considerably better known" than Forrester despite Forrester's work on the campaign trail.

Polls have shown that a third of the electorate has either never heard of Forrester or does not know enough to form an opinion about him, he said.

Zimmer, a six-year Congressman and a Senate candidate in 1996, said Forrester has already exceeded expectations.

"It's been a tremendous achievement for Doug to beat a Democratic senator," he said, referring to Torricelli's withdrawal. "His problem is that he has to defeat two to get the job."

Zimmer said Forrester still has a chance of victory. "I believe that Doug Forrester is still in the game despite what you see in the polls," he said.

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He added that the issue of turnout will play an important role, saying that it remains to be seen whether Lautenberg can electrify Democratic voters.

Panelist Thomas Byrne '76, who served two terms as chair of the state Democratic Party, said Lautenberg is "the more mainstream candidate" on most issues in the state.

Partly because of his inexperience in politics, Forrester has made some errors on the campaign trail and missed opportunities in the first debate, Byrne said.

"I think that other Republican candidates might have been more competitive in this race," he said.

Byrne expressed disappointment that so few issues had been fully discussed in this campaign, adding that voters were not fully informed about candidates' positions.

Panelist Ingrid Reed, director of the New Jersey Project for the Eagleton Institute of Politics, said that polls have shown many voters are angry about the late switch of Democratic candidates.

Reed also said because few people were working on the local level to get out the vote in the state, turnout might be low.