Economic slowdown affects students' career choices

Most people have heard the story of Chicken Little. In the story, she overreacts to an acorn falling on her head and predicts the sky is falling. In the end, this rash reaction nearly leads to her downfall.

The lessons learned from the Chicken Little anecdote can be applied to today's job market in light of the recent economic slowdown. In the rush to proclaim a national recession in the past couple years, many students and businesses have been quick to assert that the sky is falling on the job market. Is the prospect of finding a position after graduation so bleak as to warrant students staying in school to pursue higher-level degrees or jumping from liberal arts to pre-law and pre-med tracks? Are students looking at alternative post-graduation opportunities and what prospects can Princeton students expect in the job market in the near future?

In the third quarter of 2001, the nation felt its first drop in overall Gross Domestic Product in a decade. Despite a slowdown in the economy over the past two years, the nation has not actually felt a recession — defined in academic economics circles as negative growth in real GDP over two quarters — since1991. While the country's economy actually contracted in the third quarter last year, it grew at a rate of 0.02 percent in the fourth quarter. Thus, the nation never really entered into a recession. Yet the media and businesses have decided to publicize the slower years of relative growth as one.

At the University, the effects of this focus on the economic slowdown are seen from the perspective of those involved with doctoral and masters programs. The economic downturn seemed to play a role in this year's 25 percent increase in applications to the Woodrow Wilson School's M.P.A. program. The last time the Wilson School saw such a significant increase in applications was in 1993, when the economy was in a state similar to the one it is in now.

"The economy was hemorrhaging before Sept. 11 happened," said Wilson School Assistant Dean for Graduate Admissions, John Templeton."[Sept. 11] just prolonged the recession."

John Wilson, Dean of the Grad-uate School, confirmed the higher numbers of applicants to the Wilson School. However, he said, the increase in numbers is not evenly distributed across the board. On average, for all doctoral degree programs in liberal arts subjects, the numbers have increased by about 25 percent. Yet in subjects that tend to be regarded as having a quicker payoff after graduation like economics and electrical engineering, the numbers are even greater than those figures. A modest increase has occurred in other disciplines that historically don't necessarily lead to higher paying jobs — Wall Street or otherwise.

"Changes occur more drastically with respect to professional schools, although, I believe, medical schools admissions seem to be holding constant," said Wilson. "Princeton's doctoral program is not as closely tied with the economy as with schools that offer a professional degree, such as law and medical schools."

The changes in the job market are not felt quite as directly with career services. "We've had to scale back in a number of recruiters on campus. Even though they may not be coming to campus, many still have those opportunities for jobs," Director of Career Services Beverly Hamilton-Chandler said.

She said she believes that, in this economy, many students who once tried to look for a job before deciding whether to enter graduate programs are now doing the activities in tandem to make sure they have a position in the fall.

Overall, the job market seems to be relatively unchanged. As Hamilton-Chandler said, the biggest difference is in the budget companies are allotting for recruitment. Many just do not have the resources to spend on coming to campuses. The opportunities for employment are out there for those who are willing to find them. But now the initiative lies in the hands of the students.

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One University senior, who asked to remain unnamed, said she views the job market with slightly more apprehension. She said that she had been given an offer from the company where she held a summer internship, but rather than abide by the verbal agreement she made not to pursue other forms of employment, she continued to search this past fall. She wanted to make sure that she was not left in the lurch if the offer were rescinded. This senior took the approach that drastic times require drastic measures.

Apparently, concern over the economy also led many students to accept job offers early on, abridging the fall recruiting season. Many companies met their target quotas for new hires and stopped recruiting on campuses earlier this year. Students who had not yet begun their job search missed out. Companies that have suffered in recent years from declining student popularity now find themselves benefiting from the economy because graduates are now asking these companies for jobs.Employers believe they will hire about 20 percent fewer graduates this year than in the previous year, according to the annual Job Outlook survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers. In the past six months, about half of the largest employers of recent graduates cut back on hiring, while only six percent estimated an increase in hiring, the survey also said.

According to the same survey, positions in the technology sector — initially hit hard by the collapse of many dot-coms during the recession — should rebound in the next few months. The report predicts that students in electrical engineering and computer science should have no problem finding a job after graduation. NACE added the government is expected to increase hiring by about 20 percent.

Numbers of applicants for positions in the not-for-profit sector also show mixed messages. Princeton in Asia — a non-profit organization that provides interns with teaching positions in several Asian countries — has received between 30 and 40 percent more applications this year. However, other programs like Princeton Project '55 have not seen an increase in applicants, but still remain attractive for graduating seniors.

Students said they like Project '55 because the program allows applicants to forward their resume to several different organizations. Thus, an applicant has more chances to find a niche.

Elaine Yang '02 is a pre-med candidate who decided to apply to Princeton Project '55 as a way of taking a year off before medical school.

"The program allows you to apply to many different positions at once, so you have a greater chance at getting a job," she said. "It also attracts a lot of pre-meds because it is only a one-year commitment and gives you the opportunity to work in the public interest positions to help people."

Will fears about the contracting job market prove to be unfounded? Like Chicken Little, will graduating students find they have overreacted to the situation? Attitudes on campus do not necessarily reflect the idea that students have changed their career choices based on the economic slowdown.

"I've wanted to go to law school since high school," said Ben Brown '02. "My grandfather was a lawyer and I always found it interesting. The economy has played no role in my decision to go to law school."

Jennifer Milofski '03 also said the economy did not influence her decision to attend medical school.

"I wanted to be a doctor my senior year in high school," she said. "I want to be a doctor because I think I will enjoy it. It isn't about the money either, because I would like to work in a city clinic after medical school."

The slowdown seems to be nearing an end. Labor market analysts predict a favorable market for hiring college graduates in the next few years, according to an article on msnbc.com. They predict the freeze in hiring should not continue much longer and that graduates should not panic. Also, baby boomers are nearing retirement age and the vacuum left by retirees leaving the work force should open up many new positions for skilled graduates.

Based on these predictions, post-graduation job prospects for Princeton students should be of little concern in upcoming years.