Swimming upsets are not very common. The underdog never overcomes the Goliath by some divinely-inspired Herculean effort; the favorite team never has an 'off' day. If the 'underdog' is going to have a legitimate chance, it needs a base of talent, speed and depth nearly equal to its opponents.
Three weeks ago, the Princeton men's swimming team showcased the latent firepower of this year's squad, winning the Harvard-Yale-Princeton meet for the first time in three years. Needless to say, thoughts of another easy Eastern championship for perennial favorite Harvard vanished into thin air.
While Princeton is still the underdog entering this weekend's Eastern championship meet at West Point, N.Y., the Crimson realize that the Tigers are not going to be easily squashed. The outcome will be decided by some grueling head-to-head racing in every event. No miracles, just a good old-fashioned dogfight.
"This year's squad honestly has the best shot of any team in my four years at Princeton," senior captain Dennis Chang said. "They are really that good."
The reason for such high optimism lies in the vast improvement of Princeton swim times over the past year. Improvements by sophomores Carl Hessler in the butterfly and breaststroker Garth Fealey and junior freestyler Kevin Volz — to name a few — have pushed them to new limits, infecting many teammates.
"Comparing last year's team to this squad's H-Y-P performance, it is simply a different team," Chang said. "The team really went from just being good to a whole other level of national competitiveness that's simply amazing."
For example, the Tigers have the potential to send anywhere from four to six swimmers to NCAAs, considerably more than the one representative they have had for the past three years. Leading the pack is Hessler, who still holds the best 200-yard butterfly time in the nation, thereby qualifying him for an NCAA spot already.
But the most important improvement has been in the overall quality of the Tiger relays. Considering that relays count double in scoring, their success is crucial to victory this weekend.
"As fast as these guys are swimming, we have the opportunity to win relays outright that have eluded us in the recent past," Chang said.
At H-Y-Ps, the Tigers won three of the four relays against the Crimson, two by significant margins. These two relays — the 200 and 400 free relays — were record-setting swims by the same team of sophomores Jesse Gage and Jamie Leahy, junior Nathan Rebuck and freshman Mike Salerno. This success subverts the usual pattern of past years where Harvard's freestyle dominance overwhelmed the Tiger chances in these events.
Furthermore, the distance strength of Harvard — which dealt a devastating blow to Princeton last year — was also weakened due to the loss of seniors. In its place, Princeton has counteracted with the one-two punch of Volz and freshman Juan Valdivieso. Volz set a blazing pace early in the year and managed to keep up with his raised expectations, making him one of the best distance swimmers in the league.
Valdivieso, on the other hand, has been the wild card in the Princeton lineup. Used interchangeably in a variety of longer-distance events — the 1000 free, the 400 individual medley in particular — his impact surprises the opponents by offering strong supporting performances in events where the Tigers are expected to be relatively weak.

While every racer needs to prepare to give everything for each swim, Princeton especially needs to make an impact in Harvard's speciality events — such as the 400 IM and the 200 backstroke — to soften the blow. These are the only two events where Harvard took both first and second against the Tigers at H-Y-Ps.
In these events, Princeton has a plethora of talented swimmers who could fill in the necessary gaps — most likely junior Chris Cunningham and freshman Steve Fleming in the 200 back and Valdivieso, freshman Paul Cremer and senior Matt Harrigan in the 400 IM. All have the potential to explode in their respective events, and one or two phenomenal races could swing the tide in the Tigers' favor.
"We know what we need to do to win and we believe that we can," Chang said. "Harvard is an amazing team but if anyone is going to beat them, it's this year's crew."