Predicting the elections with 'political junkies' . . . online

John McIntyre '91 recently co-founded a political Website called realclearpolitics.com along with Thomas Bevan '91. The pair started working on the site in March and officially launched it in August. McIntyre recently spoke with 'Prince' Executive Editor Michael Koike.

'Prince': Where did you get the idea for this Website?

McIntyre: Well it's something that we have been talking about for some time, and the circumstances arose where — with the election coming up — we just felt that it was the right time to stop talking about it and start doing it. We have both been very active political junkies, and the site is really meant for the junkie, for the person who really follows politics the way some people follow sports — the people who watch Crossfire on CNN and Hardball on MSNBC, watching the talking heads and watching what's going on. With the election season in full gear, it was the perfect time for us.

P: What makes your site unique from other political Websites?

M: We provide a lot of information in ways that can't be found, in a different format than anywhere else. Most of the other sites are subsets of the bigger press organizations — The Washington Post, CNN, The New York Times, all the major newspapers. When we first started out, there really weren't any independent Websites out there that were stand-alone political sites. They were all covering politics, but they really weren't different from the other sites though they were trying to be.

P: Why do you think people should prefer your site?

M: Being political junkies like we are, we know what political junkies are looking for. We are trying to focus on the kinds of analyses and commentaries that we ourselves would be looking for. We aren't trying to report the news or be a breaking news operation. Each morning we go through all the major newspapers and Internet sites and we pick out the four or five best editorials of the day. During the election season, we stay on top of all the polls and we try to really focus in on where the races are — to get through all the noise.

P: Does your site have a political slant, left or right?

M: Right now, [Bevan and I] are ideologically both more capitalist, pro-freedom, libertarian. And when push comes to shove, we probably prefer Republicans. In some of our editorials, that will come through. But in our analyses, we try to be objective and evenhanded. It's not a shock to most people . . . that there has been a growing niche market out there — and it's almost a cliche — and almost a media bias against Republicans or conservatives. When we are immersed in the races, people can look at the same set of facts and draw entirely different conclusions.

P: Will conservatives be more likely to be drawn to your Website?

M: We are trying to bring in people who are at the center [of the political spectrum] or to the right. But we don't want to pigeonhole ourselves as a conservative site. But honestly, I think this site will appeal more to the middle of the road [voter] or the one who is to the right rather than the left. But we have plenty of people who disagree with us, but they enjoy the site because it has access to a good portal of other political Websites and editorial pages.

P: Who will win the presidential election?

Get the best of ‘the Prince’ delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe now »

M: We just put out an electoral [vote] update. We do an update once per week, or about every five days really. We just put out where we would call the race today. Right now, we have Bush winning 346 to 192.

P: What other races do you cover?

M: We do coverage of all the Congressional races and we do them in a way that the political junkie would want them. There are 435 House seats, but there are only 25 or so that have a chance of going one way or another. So we focus on those races. Pennsylvania, New York, states like that — that's where control of the House is going to be decided. We update our polls all the time, and we are starting to do the Congressional races. But for some of them, it's hard to get access to all the polls. We try not to take polls done by the candidate or their campaigns, and it's sometimes hard to get independent polls.

P: Who do you think will the 12th District congressional Race between Rep. Rush Holt (D) and Dick Zimmer?

M: We called that race to go as one of only two or three where the incumbent would lose. It's an extremely close race. What swayed me in that race was that in 1998 . . . Holt got about 50 percent running against Michael Pappas who wasn't a great candidate. And that was a fairly favorable year for Democrats. They picked up House seats, which doesn't typically happen in mid-term of the second term of a presidency. I'm just basing it on the fact that Holt couldn't get a great percentage then, and Dick Zimmer is a much better candidate than Pappas. I suspect . . . Zimmer will carry that seat. But that race is a flip of the coin. The thing that's working against [Holt] is that it's been a fairly Republican district over the years. [President George] Bush carried the district in 1992. Clinton carried it by 6 points in 1996. But Clinton carried the state of New Jersey by about 18 points, so that district ran 12 points ahead for the Republicans. Al Gore is not going to carry the state by 18 points.

P: What's the most unique feature of your site?

M: Recently, we have done a "realclearpolitics" tracking composite. There are four daily tracking composites, and we do a weighted average of them. So we provide a daily update of where the race is. And we also average all the polls together to come up with a weighted average of sorts. With our electoral analysis, we call every state — and we admit that a lot of states can easily flip back and forth. We think Bush is up about three or four points overall right now. If Gore picks up, maybe he picks up seven out of the eight states that are really up for grabs. I think our polls get a pulse on the state of the election . . . We try to post from several different publications — The New Republic, The Nation.

P: What states do you think will decide the presidential election?

M: Well, Pennsylvania is critical, Michigan, Florida, Missouri. But I suspect Florida and Missouri will move toward [George W.] Bush. Pennsylvania and Michigan are pure toss-ups. Gore has to win Pennsylvania, and if Bush were to lose Florida, he's probably done. But my feeling is that the press is making a bigger deal out of Florida than it really is. I just saw a poll where Gore was up 3 points. [Sen. Joseph] Lieberman definitely energized the Jewish vote in the state and that will make a difference. Of course, the other side is that Florida is changing demographically. You get out of the cities, up in the panhandle, it's a lot like the southern states. And southern states vote Republican. [Florida Gov.] Jeb Bush is going to help, but he won't be the difference. The killer for Gore is the Cuban-American vote. It's going to come out in force, and it's probably going to offset any benefit from Lieberman being on the ticket. It also depends on how much the elderly come out and vote for Gore. But I'm not sure that will carry the vote for him. [President George] Bush carried the state. [Bob] Dole ran better than the national average. It's a state that in a presidential election, it will lean Republican, especially if [the candidate] is a southerner.

P: Is Ralph Nader ['55] hurting Gore?

M: I think he's definitely hurting Gore. If it appears that Gore is going to lose, I think a lot of people will vote more strongly for Nader . . . Right now, the polls are as bad for Gore as they were for Bush a few weeks ago when [the media] said Bush was out of the race. That's just the objective fact. A recent CNN poll has Bush up eight points. If it gets worse for Gore, I think [voters] will figure that Gore isn't going to win and then go and vote for Nader. If it's close, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Nader people say that they're not going to throw their vote away and then vote for Gore. But Nader is definitely going to get more than five percent in Oregon and Washington state. And if it's a close race, that might make the difference.