March Madness extends from the games to the pools

There is no joy in Bracketville. Sure, the NCAA tournament games have been amazing to watch, but March Madness has been particularly maddening for me and my pre-tourney picks. After the wild first weekend, I'm holding on by a water wing to stay afloat in my tournament pool.

What surprises me more than who made it into the Sweet Sixteen this year is just who might end up winning the pool. Even more dramatic than CBS's magical scoring update chime confirming another upset has been the fluctuating fortunes of the tournament pool standings.

I should begin by saying that I am by no means a college basketball expert. I'm far from it. My College Hoops Intelligence Quotient (C.H.I.Q.) does not put me even close to the elite. I am a provincial Ivy League sports observer who barely knows his SWAC from his NESCAC.

But despite my lack of broad basketball knowledge and my hasty selection of picks this year, I am conspicuously near the top of the pool standings. This confirms again that basketball knowledge has little, if anything, to do with expected returns from NCAA pools.

This must be frustrating for everyone who spent hours upon hours looking at player matchups, strength of schedule and common opponents to make their own selections. And I personally know that it can be downright annoying when every Miami and Wisconsin native suddenly thinks he (and she) should start contributing analysis to ESPN.

Of course I must confess that I did the same thing last year when Ohio State made its run to the Final Four. (But I knew deep down that the Buckeyes could do it.)

As for the Hoops Intelligentsia, it's been a rough week. I should say that I personally couldn't get past the entrance exam with this group. Of course I listen with attention as they spew out RPI rankings and Mountain West Conference rebounding leaders every Selection Sunday, but after 12:15 last Thursday, all of their bets were off.

In a just world, basketball knowledge would be a surefire way to stay atop the pool standings. And even though — as Coach Carril always said — "the smart take from the strong" in NCAA basketball, the smart rarely take from the lucky in NCAA prognostication.

For the C.H.I.Q.-challenged among us, personal association and name recognition are standard modes of selection that often prove to be the best ways of staying in contention for winning a pool.

I used a range of strategies that has produced — as you can see — a range of results. But there is a method to my March Madness. So here's the manic logic of my picks:

- Any school within a 150-mile radius of Dayton, OH will certainly survive the first weekend.

- Any school whose coach is nine years removed from his glory days at Nevada's most distinguished institution of higher education will lose in the first round.

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- Any school that runs the Princeton offense is a potential Cinderella.

- At least two No. 10 seeds upset the No. 7 seed without fail.

- Any school whose mascot I can't identify is headed for elimination.

- If a school has one or more compass directions and the word "State" in its name, it doesn't have a shot.

- Any school named Penn shouldn't advance any farther than 34th Street in Philadelphia.

As you can surely tell, my phone isn't exactly ringing off the hook with job offers at major sports networks to dispense my wisdom on the air. I had mixed results to say the least.

The Flyers and Buckeyes both got sent home early. And poor Samford didn't have a prayer against Syracuse's mighty Orangemen. But I did correctly push Gonzaga and Seton Hall into the second round, and the mysterious Billikens didn't make it out of the first round.

After this weekend, though, I've given up on winning the pool. Midway through their opening round battle with St. John's, I couldn't help but root for towering Dan McClintock and his Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. An upset would have ruined my West bracket, but I've always been kind of a sap for the underdog. And Wisconsin, LSU, Purdue and Gonzaga did a pretty good job of ruining that side of the draw for me on Saturday anyway.

Come April 3, if I end up at the top of the pool standing, of course I'll relish in the victory. But in the meantime, I'll be rooting for the tourney's little guys. I just can't help it.

No matter what the seedings say, Gonzaga just might be the team to beat in the West. If Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm can keep their shooting touch and Axel Dench dominates down low, first-year head coach Mark Few could find himself in the Final Four.

But then again, I've been known to be wrong before.