So if quarterbacks are the most important players to a team, and if quarterbacks receive the most attention from the media during the season and during the draft, why is the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round dropping, with only nine drafted in the first round between 2007 and 2010, compared to 14 between 2003 and 2006?
One reason is the increased perception of the value of left tackles, epitomized by Offensive Tackle-Fest ’08, when eight of the first 26 draft picks were offensive tackles, including a man named Gosder Cherilus. Gosder! In the post-Joe-Theismann’s-leg era, NFL teams have started to get smarter about the importance of offensive linemen, especially at the left tackle position. Franchise left tackles are almost as highly paid these days as franchise quarterbacks, and teams with a top-flight quarterback want a top-flight left tackle to protect him, usually more than any other complementary player.
Despite the fact that NFL teams and commentators are noticing offensive linemen in general and left tackles in particular more than in the past, their fame and visibility have not increased that drastically and still obviously lag far behind those of quarterbacks. Ironically, I believe that this is actually also a contributing factor to fewer teams drafting quarterbacks, because of the surprisingly high bust rate of highly drafted quarterbacks and the brutal public relations of using a high draft pick on a quarterback who turns out to be a bust (e.g., JaMarcus Russell).
Between 1998 and 2007, 30 players were selected with one of the first three picks in the NFL draft. Of those players, 13 were quarterbacks. Of those quarterbacks, six have made a Pro Bowl and seven have not. Of the 17 non-quarterbacks, 10 have made a Pro Bowl and seven have not. And who are those 14 non–Pro Bowlers? Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch and Akili Smith at QB; Andre Wadsworth, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Charles Rogers, Robert Gallery, Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson at other positions. That’s six unquestioned busts at quarterback and one too early to tell (Alex Smith), with a smorgasbord at the other positions that includes valuable players who just haven’t made the Pro Bowl yet (Bush and Johnson), guys who didn’t exactly pan out but still have had decent careers (Warren and Gallery), guys who had a lot of trouble with injuries (Brown and Wadsworth) and Charles Rogers, who was going to be a great football player, but then he got high, then he got high, then he got hi-igh.
That gives a clue to why Clausen and McCoy fell as far as they did, and why fewer quarterbacks are taken in the first round than before. Granted, neither of them was expected to be drafted in the first three picks, but first-round quarterbacks carry a dangerous double whammy: They’re much more likely to be complete failures than non-quarterbacks, and the high profile and importance of the position means that the pressure is on them to save the franchise. If they don’t work out, the team is going to hear about it from its fans and the media. If Sam Bradford is a bust, the Rams ruined their chance at Ndamukong Suh, they will again be at a loss for a quarterback, and they will be pilloried by their fans and the press. If Colt McCoy is a bust, the Browns’ third-round pick didn’t work out and they’ll live. You know how many third-round picks since 2003 have made the Pro Bowl? Nine. First round picks? Sixty-one, usually about a third of each class when all is said and done. It’s a lot less damaging, both for the team’s success and for its payroll, for a third-round pick not to work out than a first-rounder.
Will this trend continue? There will always be highly touted quarterbacks coming out for the draft, and there will always be struggling teams searching for a signal-calling savior. But I suspect we’ll also see more and more quarterbacks projected in the mid-first round dropping below their projections and falling to the second or even third rounds.
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