By the numbers: Men's hockey meets Vermont, Dartmouth

When the men's hockey team encounters Vermont on Saturday, two very even teams will take the ice. Both are in a three-way tie with Yale for seventh place in the Eastern College Athletic Conference. Both sport 7-9-2 league records. Both have scored as many goals as they have allowed. Vermont has a lackluster power play, but a good penalty-killing unit; Princeton is the exact opposite. Something has to give. It's time to look at the stats. If you're not a math major, never fear, there is a moral to the story.

Strictly speaking, the Tigers and the Catamounts should tie. Princeton has averaged 3.39 goals per game in the ECAC and has given up just as many. Vermont's numbers are at 2.89. Average these together and the final score would be 3.14 to 3.14. It's a tie at pi.

One statistical factor that should change the outcome is man-advantage situations. Factoring in Princeton's effectiveness on the power play, Vermont's penalty-killing ability and the average penalties per game allowed by the Catamounts, the Tigers can expect 1.34 goals on the power play. Performing the same math for Vermont, the Catamounts should score 1.6 power-play goals. Never mind asking how one goes about scoring .34 goals; the numbers can't be wrong.

Without a doubt, these teams will also score goals in even-strength situations. Eliminate odd-man situations from the overall scoring equation and Princeton should score 2.17 goals to Vermont's 2.14. Add these numbers to the previously derived power-play numbers and Vermont wins, 3.74 to 3.51. What's it all mean? The Catamount power play may be bad, but its penalty-killing is good enough to overcome that shortcoming against the Tigers.

"Dartmouth and Vermont are probably mirror images of each other in terms of how they play," head coach Len Quesnelle '88 said.

The Big Green — which Princeton faces tonight — sits in a tie for fourth in the ECAC, boasting a five-point lead over Princeton. Running the same statistical calculations for tonight's contest finds Dartmouth winning, 4.2 to 3.3. An immense .9-goal margin.

What does Princeton need to do to win either of these games? With 149 ECAC penalties called against them, the Tigers lead the league. If they can reduce their penalty numbers to the same level as their opponents, they claim an incontestable 3.51 to 3.5 victory over Vermont, but still lose to Dartmouth, 3.63 to 3.3. Obviously.

One main difference between Princeton and its opponents this weekend is that the majority of the Tigers' goals come from their top few scorers; the Big Green and Catamount offenses rely upon more players for scoring output. Seniors right wing Chris Corrinet and left wing Shane Campbell and juniors center Brad Parsons and defenseman Dave Schneider account for 62 percent of the Tiger goals. Match them against the top four scorers from Dartmouth and Vermont, and the Tigers win both games: 2.18 to 1.82 over Vermont and 2.18 to 2.05 over Dartmouth. Pit these players in a four-on-four, winner-take-all, 60-minute deathmatch and they'd score roughly two goals apiece, but Princeton would win. That's what the numbers say.

To sum up, Princeton can win both games this weekend by first limiting its time in the penalty box and then minimizing the extraneous goals from merely erratic goal scorers. Though it may seem counter-intuitive, this may mean concentrating less on the top scorers in an attempt to avoid the uncommon goals from fringe players.

Of course, the statistics can never really tell the story. Princeton beat Dartmouth, 6-0, in their last meeting despite being severely outplayed. And the Tigers have upset the first-place ECAC team twice in the last three weeks. The stats can point to deficiencies, but in a league with such parity as the ECAC, Princeton always has a chance to win — while also always guarding against a loss.

"I've said this before," Quesnelle said. "If we play the way we can play, we can beat any team in this league."