Column: Previewing the NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference

Only one series has any real chance of producing an upset. The Hawks could win over Orlando. The Knicks, despite the Celtics’ recent slide, have no real shot of advancing. Still, the first round may be worth watching, if only because it is the start of the playoff narrative. Even if the outcomes of most series are not in doubt, the first round offers clues as to how the rest of the playoffs will unfold.

Here is what to watch in the Eastern Conference first round. My colleague Bryant Jones will cover the Western Conference first round tomorrow.

In the series matching the No. 1 Bulls against the No. 8 Pacers, watch to see if the Bulls’ defense absolutely strangles the Pacers’ offense. The Bulls are going to win the series, but, if the first game was any indication, their defense may have some weaknesses that could be exploited.

Before the series, basketball analyst John Hollinger of ESPN.com wrote about how teams that pass quickly and shoot from the outside do well against the defensive schemes of Tom Thibodeau, the former Celtics assistant and Chicago’s current head coach. In game one, the Pacers shot 46 percent from the floor and 56 percent from three-point range. That type of three-point shooting is probably unsustainable, but the Pacers have indicated that there is a way to defeat the Bulls’ stalwart defense, a style Orlando or Atlanta may try to mimic in the second round.

Chicago point guard Derrick Rose’s play is also worth watching for its beauty. His ability to effortlessly weave through opposing defenses and finish around the basket is something to behold. The Pacers may steal one game at home, but the Bulls are the far better team. Prediction: Bulls in five.

The outcome of the No. 2 Heat vs. the No. 7 Sixers series is also almost a foregone conclusion, but the way the Heat play will be indicative of future playoff success. In a recent podcast with Bill Simmons, TrueHoop basketball analyst Henry Abbott discussed how coach Erik Spoelstra has not often called the play that could destroy opposing defenses: a pick and roll with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Watch to see if the Heat use the pick and roll to devastating effect against the Sixers in round one, though they may be keeping that play in reserve for heavy use in later rounds against the Bulls or Lakers.

The Sixers’ defense as a whole is unlikely to frustrate the Heat, but defensive ace Andre Igoudala could make LeBron or Wade’s life miserable. If the Sixers are more successful deploying their ace against one of the two stars, watch the other teams follow suit. The Sixers, like the Pacers, may enjoy one win at home, but a team that shoots as poorly as Philly is not going to advance against Miami. Prediction: Heat in five.

No. 3 Boston vs. No. 6 New York has many Knicks fans smelling blood, but the Celtics are likely to hold on for at least one more round. The Celtics will play their front four of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett for 40 minutes or more, and if Shaquille O’Neal is healthy for most of the series, then the Celts will be unstoppable. Even without Shaq, the Celtics will win handily by not playing their terrible bench and letting their starters enjoy the extra days off.

Rondo has seemed lost at times in the second half of the season, but the playoffs should help him regain focus. The Knicks have had one of the league’s worst defenses since the ’Melo trade, which will likely continue in the playoffs.

If one of the Celtics’ big four gets hurt, the Knicks may have an edge, but for now it looks like this Boston nucleus will enjoy one more deep run in the playoffs. Watch to see if forward Jeff Green is at all effective as a wing player in the upcoming series; his playoff performance may determine whether the Celtics re-sign him this summer. Prediction: Celtics in six.

No. 4 Orlando vs. No. 5 Atlanta is the only competitive series, and I think Atlanta, against the Vegas odds, will win in an upset. Before the series, Hollinger wrote that Atlanta center Jason Collins was put on earth to defend Dwight Howard. Collins may be a microcosm of the Hawks as a whole: They were built to defeat the Magic and save the Bulls from facing Orlando. The Hawks beat Orlando 3-1 in the regular season and demonstrated in game one that they could win against the Magic.

Collins played only 18 minutes in the first playoff game, but when he played, the Hawks had a scoring differential of plus-14. Howard did destroy the Hawks for most of the game, ending up with 46 points, but his team was defeated. One major reason for the Hawks’ success was that their new point guard Kirk Hinrich checked Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson very effectively. When Hinrich played, the Hawks had a scoring differential of plus-21.

Get the best of the ‘Prince’ delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe now »

The Magic is a very deep team, but bench strength matters less in the playoffs than it does in the regular season. The Hawks will play Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Hinrich as much as possible, and Orlando cannot put more than five guys on the court. Before game one, I bet a friend that the Hawks would win the series in seven. Now, I’m ready to make a bolder pick: Hawks in five.