Column: NBA playoffs preview: Western Conference

Hopefully all of you caught my colleague Brennan Robbin’s column yesterday on his predictions for the first round in the East. This column is a follow-up, focusing instead on the West. Here are my first round predictions for the Western Conference Playoffs:

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Spurs in 6

Not since the infamous loss by Dirk Nowiztki’s Mavs in the 2007 NBA playoff have we seen such a weak first seed. Four years ago, the Golden State Warriors were the perfect poison for the Mavs, a fast athletic team that could run a larger (but not particularly big) Mavs team. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, I don’t believe that they are the team best poised to upset the San Antonio Spurs. True, since the Grizzlies acquired Shane Battier they have become a much better team, but that does not necessarily make them a contender all of a sudden.

A team relying on the abilities of Zach Randolph is not a team I trust. Finally a team has been able to get something of Randolph, who posted a 25-14-3 stat line in the game against the Spurs, but then they had to go and ruin it by giving him a four-year, $71 million contract a few hours later. Anyone else ready for a huge letdown in the ensuing games? Especially when Marc Gasol is playing so well beside him. Randolph is a 29-year-old finishing his career year, while Gasol is a 26-year-old who hasn’t found his ceiling yet. Why pay the guy who is going to decline in skill so rapidly it will completely erase all memories of this season?

Maybe with Gay injured at the moment, the Grizzlies are looking to secure their future, but I don’t think Zach is the right player with whom to do that. Speaking of injuries, once Manu Ginobili gets back to this series, it’s over. The question is: when will Ginobili get back? Even without him, I think the Spurs will pull it together to take care of the Grizzlies, but Manu’s return has big implications on the rest of the playoffs.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets: Lakers in 5

Chris Paul made the Lakers look silly in the first game. He put up an amazing stat line and tore up Derek Fisher and the rest of the Los Angeles team like Busta Rhymes tore up Chris Brown’s “Look At Me Now.” Do I think that he is going to put up 33 points, 14 assists and seven rebounds again though? No. Don’t get me wrong — Chris Paul is a great player, but coach Phil Jackson is going to earn his money and show the world why he has won 11 championships already and is working towards his fourth three-peat during this postseason. If the Lakers can get the ball out of Chris Paul’s hands, then the next best option the Hornets have is Trevor Ariza, who would be the fifth best option if he were on the Lakers. I really doubt that Ariza can pick up any slack from Paul if Paul does not have another exceptional game.

Also, Kobe Bryant is going to come back wanting New Orleans Hornets’ throats. He, along with the rest of his team, knows that the Lakers should not have given up a single game to the Hornets, who are playing without David West, after he went down mid-season with a season-ending injury. If the Lakers can figure out how to get the ball into the low post, the Hornets have no way to guard both Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The Hornets will find it even harder to guard the two big men next game if Aaron Gray does not play, having gone down in the final minute of last game with a sprained ankle. Paul deserves credit for winning the Hornets’ one game against the Lakers, but I don’t see his doing it again.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers: Trail Blazers in 7

Speaking of point guards who aren’t going to play as well in the rest of the series, Jason Kidd is not going to go 6-for-10 from three point territory again against the Trail Blazers. The man turned forward the hands of time and grabbed an ability to shoot threes that he has never displayed before and probably won’t display again this post-season.

After the Gerald Wallace gift, the Blazers have had a new look. They are athletic and able to shoot, and as I said before about the warriors, they are a good match against the Mavs. If Brandon Roy can start playing well, then there wouldn’t be much of a series, but as of now both teams will have a long series ahead of them. I’m still not sold on Dirk Nowiztki as a player who can win playoff series. He’s good at putting up numbers and winning regular season games, but when the pressure is on in a tight playoff series, I would not want the ball in Dirk’s hands.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets: Thunder in 7

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Easily the most exciting playoff series of the first round. These teams should be the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the West with the Lakers at No. 1 and the Spurs at No. 4 or 5. Both teams are coming off a huge trade deadline trade, both teams finished the year very strong and both teams are fun to watch. The Thunder have the edge in this series, or should I say two edges, because they have the best two players on the court. While the Denver Nuggets are deeper than the Thunder, the Thunder have two players that could be MVP candidates in the coming years in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Both are incredibly talented young players, and the Nuggets don’t really have an answer for either one.

Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari have played well for their new teams, but neither can really take over a playoff series. In most cases, when a team trades away a superstar, they don’t get equal value in return (e.g. Shaq’s being traded to Miami). Somehow, though, not only did the Nuggets get more than equal value for ’Melo, they actually managed to convince the world that he is a superstar. After watching him blow the first game for the Knicks in the T.D. Garden, I’m sure that Nuggets fans felt glad to be rid of him.

As a basketball fan, it pains me a little to see these quality teams playing in the first round, but as a Lakers fan I’m glad the Lakers won’t have to play either of these teams for another two rounds. The three teams that really pose threats to the Lakers in the Western Conference (Thunder, Spurs and Nuggets) will play each other and leave only one alive for the Lakers, who will presumably make the Western Conference Finals. Fortunately, quality teams playing in the first round makes for great games on TV already. Unfortunately, though the only way to deal with the NBA playoffs without seeing my grades fall faster than M. Night Shyamalan’s movie ratings is to restrict myself to watching only two or three series. I’d recommend watching the Celtics/Knicks series and the Thunder/Nuggets series, and, obviously as a Lakers fan, I’m going to watch Kobe doin’ work. (And I’d strongly recommend against watching “The Last Airbender.” Just watch “The Sixth Sense” again and think of all the lost potential. It’s OK, I’m crying on the inside too.)