To craft this infallible (read: I made it up) prognosticator, I took the top 12 teams in each conference (the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers need not apply) and rated them on five categories: quarterback rating of starting quarterback (15 percent), points scored (25 percent), points allowed (30 percent), strength of remaining schedule (20 percent) and intangibles (10 percent), normalizing them to each other by league so that the average score was zero. Since there are six playoff teams and six non-playoff teams in each of these groups of 12, zero was an effective cutoff point. I also made a wild estimate of what I think each playoff team’s record will be. As a New York Giants homer whose least favorite teams include the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots, I found the results somewhat chilling.
National Football Conference:
No. 1 seed: Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
Score: 16.40
Discussion: The Eagles may be ranked a little too highly because Michael Vick’s insanely high passer rating is likely to go down with a larger sample size. That said, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in 153 attempts, and he staked a powerful claim Monday night against the Washington Redskins as the most unstoppable offensive force in the league.
No. 2 seed: Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Score: 15.77
Discussion: The Pack have had issues with injuries, to be sure, but a plus-78 point differential through nine games is formidable indeed. They also have three blisteringly cold home games to look forward to.
No. 3 seed: New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Score: 12.42
Discussion: New Orleans and Atlanta come out very even on almost every section of the scale, but on the intangibles side of things I just can’t shake the feeling that Atlanta is a little bit of a joke. I think quarterback Drew Brees will be at his best against Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the Saints’ last two games for a come-from-behind division victory.
No. 4 seed: St. Louis Rams (8-8)
Score: -6.25
Discussion: Yuck. The East, North and South divisions have seven teams fighting for five spots, and the two losers will surely be angry to see one of the putrid West teams grandfathered into a playoff spot. But since there has to be one, my method likes the Rams. Sam Bradford is growing as a quarterback, it’s the only team in the division with a point differential close to 0, and the current division leader (Seattle) has been blown out twice in the last three games. That said, don’t sleep on the Arizona Cardinals, awful as they are: Their last seven opponents are an incredible 21-42 combined.
No. 5 seed: Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Score: 11.25
Discussion: See the Saints comment above. Also, is anybody really ready to take the Falcons seriously? It’s like saying Mariah Carey is good. Yeah, she’s won tons of awards and had a long career — but it’s not like anybody actually likes her.
No. 6 seed: New York Giants (10-6)
Score: 8.04
Discussion: The embarrassing loss to the Cowboys underscored a worrisome fact for Big Blue: If the pass rush isn’t reaching the quarterback, deep passers will eat the secondary for Sunday brunch like they’re playing at Forbes College. Still, the only other real candidates for the last playoff spot are the Chicago Bears, who have a tough schedule and no offense, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have a minus-18 point differential. I still can’t see the Giants missing the playoffs.
American Football Conference:
No. 1 seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Score: 12.80
Discussion: Even after their beatdown by New England on Sunday, the Steelers have such a favorable schedule that I’d be surprised if they lose more than one or maybe two games the rest of the way.
No. 2 seed: New York Jets (11-5)
Score: 7.02
Discussion: The Jets, Patriots and Colts are all almost completely even in my arbitrary system, so the Jets get the nod over the Colts because they’ve won one more game and over the Patriots because of their defense.
No. 3 seed: Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Score: 6.20
Discussion: In a hotly contested AFC South race in which probably only one team will emerge a playoff contender, the Houston Texans have too strong a schedule, the Jacksonville Jaguars have no defense and the Tennessee Titans and Colts play twice. When in doubt, I’ll take Peyton Manning.
No. 4 seed: San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Score: 5.54
Discussion: Great quarterback, great point differential, weak schedule coming up — I mean, the Chargers have to put it together at some point, don’t they? Of course, they could also get seven punts blocked the rest of the season and finish 6-10. As fun as the Raiders and Chiefs are, one has to figure the football gods won’t really allow that to happen, right?
No. 5 seed: New England Patriots (11-5)
Score: 6.59
Discussion: Their schedule is stronger than it looks, with five games against solid teams and one against the underrated potential spoiler Detroit (which is 2-7 with a positive point differential).
No. 6 seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Score: 5.82
Discussion: They’re a game ahead of the Jacksonville/Tennessee/Oakland/Kansas City/Miami logjam, and their defense is strong enough that I don’t see that changing.
I’m not going to make any predictions of how these playoff games will go, because if there’s anything we’ve learned in 2010, it’s that whoever you think is the best team is about to get absolutely rocked by the Browns. See you for the Lions-Bills Super Bowl! (OK, maybe a few things are out of the question.)
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