Column: What it takes to win March

Your bracket is probably dead. Mine certainly is, vanishing in a puff of smoke faster than you can say “Faroukmanesh, Eglseder and Ahelegbe, oh my!” — which actually isn’t that fast, come to think of it.

Not that I mind, of course. Upsets are what the NCAA tournament is all about, showcasing underappreciated teams and forcing the confused media to confront that they may have been wrong. So in honor of upsets and our fellow Ivy Leaguers, the Cornell Big Red, let’s run through some indicative trends.

Who pulls upsets? First and foremost, teams that get hot from three-point range. That’s certainly the rationale behind Ohio’s stunning upset of Georgetown (the Bobcats shot 56 percent from three-point range, but then lost to Tennessee when they cooled to 38 percent and couldn’t play defense), Murray State’s downing of overseeded Vanderbilt (46 percent from behind the arc and even better in its loss to Butler, which was caused by turnovers, poor free throws and abysmal two-point shooting) and Washington’s advance to the Sweet 16. The Huskies are shooting over 50 percent from three-point range in the tournament despite a pedestrian 33.8 percent mark in the regular season.

It helps even more if a team has a good big man so they don’t get destroyed on the boards. This applies to St. Mary’s, Cornell and Northern Iowa, who have not only been making it rain like Pacman on ghosts but also have big men like Omar “Sam I Am” Samhan, Jeff “Five Dollar” Foote-Long, and Jordan “Oompa Loompa” Eglseder, respectively, to give a steady inside scoring option and protect the boards. All three of these teams (and Washington, their fellow low seed in the Sweet 16) have positive or zero rebounding margins. Having this kind of inside presence should help keep their teams afloat if the threes aren’t falling early on.

What types of teams don’t have what it takes for an upset? Everyone knows the saying “live by the three, die by the three.” If the threes aren’t falling, upsets won’t be happening. And really, that’s pretty much how it goes. Oakland had one guy go off for 28 points and nine assists, but they shot miserably from three-point range and were sent back to Michigan (wait, what?) by Pittsburgh. The Sam Houston State Bearkats hung with the Baylor Bears but couldn’t overkome going six-of-31 from the ark and were summarily beaten.

Who gets upset? The most obvious teams here are the sometimes overlapping groups of teams that were overseeded to begin with, or teams unlucky enough to draw an underseeded team. Scottie Reynolds might not have known it, but Villanova in March is a far cry from the team that started the season 20-1. They faltered down the stretch, and now Fiona is gone in an Australia minute to the St. Mary’s Come-From-A-Land-Down-Unders. Vanderbilt wasn’t that good to begin with, and the Commodores raced into a confident 30-win team in Murray State’s Racers. New Mexico played a weak schedule and turned out not to be worthy of a No. 3 seed. Nobody saw Northern Iowa beating Kansas, but a team ranked in the top 25 most of the year probably deserved higher than a a No. 9 seed.

Other teams at risk are those that can’t adjust to a quick pace. Temple and Wisconsin thrived during the regular season on a methodical and slow offense combined with stifling defense, but when Cornell got hot, both were unprepared to score quickly. If teams like this get behind early, it’s much more difficult for them to recover.

Who doesn’t get upset? Besides the obvious (just play really well overall and you won’t be upset), we have teams with a player who can take over the game (Kentucky’s John Wall, Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Syracuse’s Wes Johnson), teams cresting at the right time (West Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State), teams that play stifling defense but can also keep pace with a fast opponent (Butler, Purdue, Duke, Baylor), teams with a chip on their shoulder (Purdue without Robbie Hummel, Kansas State in Kansas’s shadow), and experienced coaches who know not to underestimate the opposition (Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, etc.). And we always have to keep in mind that these teams are seeded highly for a reason: They have better athletes. If they didn’t, upsets wouldn’t be upsets.

What does this all mean for the Sweet 16 and beyond? If I knew, I wouldn’t be clawing for last place in all my bracket groups. But I’ll be rooting for the upsets, Cornell in particular. After all, the basketball doesn’t care whether the player handling it is an Ivy Leaguer or a future lottery pick. If the threes fall, they fall, and if the threes fall, the newfound Cinderellas will dance on.