Column: The Colts are just too good for the Saints

??I hate the colts. I am a diehard fan of another AFC South team, and watching Peyton Manning get eaten by Saints defensive end Will Smith would be like Christmas in February. Unfortunately, I’ve been down this road enough times to know the simple truth: The Colts are too good to lose on Sunday. The passing game is too precise, the blocking is too efficient and the defense is simply too good when it counts.

We’ll get one thing straight immediately. New Orleans deserves to win this Super Bowl. The team hasn’t been to the big game in its 42-year history, and the city, once a cultural icon, continues to struggle in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It’s a nice story — a team rising to inspire a city in need — but unfortunately sports don’t always have the happy ending of a Reese Witherspoon movie.

Just ask the Michigan State Spartans, who played UNC in the NCAA basketball title game in Detroit last year. The people of Detroit, mired in dire economic straits, needed that win. Instead they were handed one of the most lopsided losses in championship-game history.

There is no 12th man in the Super Bowl; no off-the-field story that plays any part in the outcome of the game. Sunday night is about two very good football teams — one of which just happens to be a little better than the other.

Most people don’t realize exactly how good the Colts are. For all intents and purposes, they haven’t lost a game this season. Most Indianapolis starters watched from the sidelines as their third-string quarterback threw away the Week 16 game against the Jets, and the starters played even less in their season-ending loss to Buffalo. To recap this season: 16-0 with Peyton Manning under center. 0-2 with Curtis Painter.

The Colts are far better than any team the Saints have played thus far in the playoffs. Indianapolis is not void of a defense like the Cardinals, whom the Saints crushed 45-14, and they will not fumble six times, as the Vikings did in the NFC Championship game. The Colts will be efficient and reliable on offense and stingy on defense – a combination that the Saints have not seen since they beat the Patriots over two months ago.

How about Dwight Freeney’s ankle? Will he or won’t he? Is it sprained or is it broken? I don’t think it matters. I know that’s a bold statement. Freeney, a five-time Pro Bowler, is a phenomenal talent with game-changing ability, but the Colts success won’t hinge on his playing. To begin with, Freeney is such an effective player because of the Colts’ bodies inside: 265-pound Eric Foster and 312-pound Daniel Muir. Muir and Foster are the unsung heroes of the Colts defense. They rarely reach the quarterback — they have just three sacks between them — but their presence frees up room for defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis to stunt, swim and spin their way to opposing quarterbacks.

The Colts have an uncanny ability to turn backups into superstars. When wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez was injured earlier this year, the league expected Manning to struggle. Instead he turned Austin Collie (who?) and Pierre Garcon (who?) into legitimate second and third options. Collie led all rookie receivers in catches and touchdowns, and Garcon was the best played in the AFC Championship Game, where he amassed 11 catches for 151 yards against a good Colts secondary.

If called on, Raheem Brock, Freeney’s backup, will become just another Collie or Garcon — an Indianapolis understudy who makes the seamless transition into the spotlight without a dip in performance. Come Sunday, whether it is Freeney or Brock on the right side of the Colts line, look for the man in blue to wreak havoc with Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod.

The passing games speak for themselves. I won’t waste space describing an Indianapolis air attack that averaged 303 yards against 2009 playoff teams or a certain Saints quarterback who led the league in passing in 2006 and 2008. The running games, however, offer a little more intrigue.

We’ve all heard the knock against the Indy running game. The Colts were dead last in the league in rushing this season, but when left alone, that stat can be deceiving. There is more to a running game than yards per game, and the Saints defense will understand that on Sunday. Indy starter Joseph Addai is not Pierre Thomas between the tackles, and he’s not Reggie Bush in open space, but he can block, and that’s exactly what the Colts will ask him to do.

The Colts offensive line is good — don’t get me wrong — but Addai and backup Donald Brown are a critical part of Manning’s protection. Addai and Brown can run when necessary, but they make their impact blocking and receiving. The Saints defensive line and blitzing linebackers have mauled both of the quarterbacks they have played thus far in the playoffs, but Manning offers a completely new challenge. Not only is his blocking better, but he doesn’t stay upright in the pocket long enough to get battered. He won’t get roughed up like Kurt Warner and won’t be pressured into making the poor decisions like Old Man Favre.

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This is not, however, a game of offenses. This is a game of defenses — and the Colts simply have a better one. They held the Jets to 86 yards rushing a week after surrendering just three points to the Baltimore Ravens. The Saints may have an edge in the ground game, but the Colts have made a habit of stuffing good running backs in the playoffs.

The Saints defense, on the other hand, cannot hang with the Colts receivers. Shut down Reggie Wayne, as the Jets did, and Garcon will beat you. Minimize Dallas Clark’s impact, and Austin Collie will make you pay. If the Saint cannot consistently get pressure on Manning — which I don’t think they can — Manning will pick them apart.

And don’t buy the whole interception argument. Yes, the Saints had a ton of picks this year, but the caliber of many of those quarterbacks — three off Matt Stafford, three off Josh Freeman and two off Chad Henne – makes the stat far less impressive. Darren Sharper and the Saints defensive coaches can run their mouths all week long, but on Sunday night the Colts will answer those taunts with points.

Expect a lower scoring game — especially if it rains — but for Manning and his receivers to outshine the Saints defense when it counts. Watch Addai when he’s picking up blitzes — he’s a better player than most give him credit for — and be ready for a big game from the Colts right defensive end, whether the back of his jersey says Freeney or Brock.

The Colts are unlike any team that the Saints have seen this year. Their offensive line is better, the running backs are more dynamic and Peyton Manning is, well, Peyton Manning. Don’t be deceived by Indianapolis’ microscopic rushing totals, Dwight Freeney’s ankle or those romantic stories about a city in need. The Saints are no pushover, but they are outmatched. The Colts are the most complete team in the league, and they will show it on Sunday.

Colts 27, Saints 17

Who Dat? Colts Dat.