For all the newbies out there who might not know how sports handicapping works, I'll give a quick rundown of the basic facts. Correctly predicting games encompasses a lot more than simply picking the team you think will win. If that's all it were, then beating Vegas would actually be pretty easy. You'd just bet the house on Texas over Sam Houston State or Georgia over Western Kentucky and then try to figure out what in the world you're going to do with a second house.
What Vegas wants is an equal number of bettors on both teams so that they can make a profit by taking a small percentage of the winner's earnings no matter which team wins. So when you place a wager you actually aren't trying your luck against any casino or bookie, but you're instead betting only against the perceptions of other bettors. It's very rare to see two teams that are so evenly matched that exactly one half of the population chooses one team while the other half chooses the second, and for this reason point spreads exist.
A point spread is simply one way of giving each team a 50 percent shot at winning the game so that people will be equally attracted to picking either of the two teams. Point spreads work by adding or subtracting points from each team's final score. For example, last week I picked Michigan State (+5.5) over Notre Dame. That meant that after the game ended as a 40-37 win for Notre Dame I got to add 5.5 points to Michigan State's total, making the adjusted score 42.5 to 40 in favor of Michigan State, meaning my pick was a winner despite the fact that Michigan State lost. This is called "covering the spread" and the A.T.S. records at the bottom of the article stand for "against the spread."
Now that we all know what's going on, let's look at some of this week's bigger matchups.
Featured Pick:
No. 1 Ohio State (-7) at No. 13 Iowa
The Buckeyes (4-0 overall) travel to Iowa City tomorrow night for a primetime kickoff against the Hawkeyes (4-0). The contest will only be Iowa's second home night game at Kinnick Stadium. That means more time tailgating for the fans and subsequently a much louder than normal crowd inside the stadium. Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith will look to exploit the gaping hole in the middle of Iowa's defense left by departed NFL first-rounders, linebacker Abdul Hodge and linebacker Chad Greenway. Smith has kept his scrambling to a minimum this year, having recorded only 15 rush attempts for four yards thus far, but don't take his lack of numbers on the ground as an indication that his production has fallen off. His patience in the pocket has resulted in a 66 percent completion rate and he has thrown eight touchdowns against only two interceptions. It might not hurt for him to tuck the ball and go a few more times this week, however, if he really wants to attack Iowa's relative weakness at linebacker. Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. has a tendency to disappear in big games when matched up against a defense that actually has the talent to cover him. Last week, against Penn State's Justin King, he managed only two catches for 15 yards and the entire Buckeye offense only managed 14 points despite their previous 32 point per game average. Luckily for Ginn and Ohio State, both of Iowa's starters are in their first year and haven't seen him before.
On the other side, I liken Iowa's Drew Tate to Doug Flutie at quarterback. He's only five feet, 11 inches on a good day, but he has great instincts and just makes plays. Iowa likes to roll him out and let him run the show as a pass-run threat on the outside. He's a very talented player, but went down with an abdominal injury before Iowa's game at Syracuse two weeks ago and without him Iowa needed eight stops from within the two-yard line from its defense to hang on for a 20-13 win. Did I mention Syracuse is really bad? Tate will look to All-Big Ten tight end Scott Chandler as often as possible. Chandler is a huge target at 6'7" and 257 pounds, and he has already nabbed two touchdowns on the year. On the ground, Iowa's Albert Young (5'10", 209) and Ohio State's Antonio Pittman (5'11", 198) are in the same league in terms of talent, and while Pittman (6.3 yards per carry and four touchdowns) is having the better year on the ground, Young has a team leading 18 catches and a touchdown grab to go with his three rushing touchdowns.
Ohio State is the more talented team, but I view this as a revenge game for Iowa after the 31-6 beatdown the Hawkeyes took in the Horseshoe last year and I think they have the talent and leadership to allow them to feed off the energy of a night-game crowd with the number one team in the country coming to town. All in all, I think the game stays tight and I'm taking Iowa to cover.
Pick: Iowa (+7) over Ohio State.
Purdue (+14) at No. 14 Notre Dame
How good is Purdue? I wish I knew. They're sitting pretty at 4-0 right now, but those wins have come against Indiana State, Miami (Oh.), Ball State, and Minnesota. Dorien Bryant is a talent at WR and Curtis Painter has thrown for more yards (1140) than Brady Quinn (1086), but they haven't really played anybody that good yet. Which Notre Dame team will show up? The team that got waxed at home by Michigan or the team that made that improbable comeback against Michigan State last week? I'm going with something in between and that team isn't 14 points better than Purdue.
Pick: Purdue(+14) over Notre Dame.
No. 23 Rutgers (-4) at South Florida
I've been riding Rutgers all year and there's no reason to stop now. Running back Ray Rice, fullback Brian Leonard and tight end Clark Harris are all NFL caliber talents for Rutgers and they'll be facing a South Florida team that lost to Kansas last week. Rutgers is in the top 25 for the first time since 1976 and should paste South Florida.
Pick Rutgers (-4) over South Florida
No. 24 Georgia Tech (+9) at No. 10 Virginia Tech.
Are the wheels falling off at Virginia Tech? After winning an embarrassingly close game against Cincinnati at home last week in addition to the midweek suspensions of DE Chris Ellis and WR Josh Morgan, things don't look good. Last year Georgia Tech went to Blacksburg and got steamrolled 51-7, but in a strange ACC scheduling quirk they have to play at Virginia Tech for a second straight year. It's going to be hard for the Yellow Jackets to come back to the place where they got pounded and hang with a better team, but they will.
Pick: Georgia Tech (+9) over Virginia Tech.
No. 12 Oregon (-1.5) at Arizona State
Oregon stole a win from Oklahoma on a controversial call last week and really shouldn't be ranked this highly. The Ducks only have three touchdowns through the air and Dennis Dixon, despite all the Heisman praise he's been getting lately, might not be as good a quarterback as Arizona State's Rudy Carpenter, who already has 11 touchdown throws to seven different receivers. Sagarin currently has Oregon ranked at 10 and Arizona State ranked at 32 so I'm going to take the hint and admit that the computers might know something that I don't know.
Pick: Oregon(-1.5) over Arizona State.
Princeton at Columbia
Princeton just cracked the 1-AA top-25, coming in at number 24 in the Dunkel Index rating. Jeff Terrell had an impressive three-touchdown game last week and showed good touch and accuracy on a 2nd quarter 25-yard touchdown toss to Brian Brigham. The inexperienced offensive line came through with a solid performance against a tough Lafayette front. The Tiger defense allowed only 10 first downs and 206 total yards to a Lafayette team that rolled up 417 yards and 25 first downs just one week prior against Penn. Columbia scraped by then 1-2 Georgetown last week by only two points and will have all it can handle and more this week from the Tigers.
Pick: Princeton 31, Columbia 10.
Overall Record A.T.S. ( 10-7-1)
Last Week A.T.S. (3-2-1)
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