The most unusual things happened Tuesday night: people headed out to party complained about Kerry being behind 200,000 votes in Florida between vodka shots, neurotic gym rats stopped running on treadmills as Pennsylvania came in on the TVs at Dillon, and every Canadian I saw on campus openly expressed their desire to be an American (even if they claimed it was just to kick Bush out of office). What we saw on Tuesday night was a firm affirmation of democratic governance, that we as a people are smart enough to govern ourselves without help from the U.N., Cuba or The Guardian.
So, now that we have all exercised our rights, what have we as a nation bought ourselves? Let me make some predictions for the next four years.
Iraq: More of the same. Not enough troops will be coupled with poorly spent money for awhile. The insurgency will continue, although there will be elections in January. Don't look for anything miraculous anytime in the near future. Even Rome wasn't built in a day.
War on Terror: Stalled effort. We will not find Osama Bin Laden (who may die of kidney failure before we ever get to him — his will be the grave with the dialysis machine next to it), and we will continue to lose the fight against terrorist financing. However, there will be no more invasions. For better or worse, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and all other countries that actually do harbor terrorists are safe. Contrary to what every high school and college student thinks (and what President Bush actually says when he demonstrates his occasional incapacity to formulate a simple sentence), there will be no draft. Even if the administration wanted it (which I doubt it does), Congress would never acquiesce. We will also continue to ignore stockpiled and unsecured nuclear weapons in Russia and breakaway former Soviet republics.
Other Foreign Policy: President Bush will continue to fight for what he believes is in this country's best interest, regardless of the positions of individuals (especially those in Old Europe), but there will be a thaw in relations between the president and other leaders. He will search for issues to reengage Chancellor Schroeder of Germany and President Chirac of France, while continuing to work with British Prime Minister Blair (who will focus on domestic issues in the foreseeable future). While there will definitely be gaffes, things will probably go much more smoothly in the second term than in the first. Also, there will be a new secretary of state, because Secretary Powell has had enough. Look for Ambassador Negroponte or Ambassador Danforth to run Foggy Bottom.
Taxation: The repeal of the marriage penalty and the death tax will both be made permanent. There will be some streamlining of the corporate tax code, but nothing noteworthy and no additional major tax relief for American citizens unless absolutely necessary.
Spending: Hopefully, it will be cut. Now that reelection is out of the way, less pork means less spending. Don't look for cuts in entitlement programs (the president has yet to meet a program that he doesn't like), just fewer federally funded bridges for Alaska and airports for Colorado. Moreover, we can hopefully put those expensive (and illegal) agricultural subsidies behind us for good.
Supreme Court: Justice Rehnquist will retire sometime this term for health reasons and will be replaced on the bench by a moderately conservative justice, perhaps Alberto Gonzalez. If the new chief justice is selected from the current court, it will be Justice Thomas. Don't look for an outright reversal of Roe v. Wade, just a general chipping away at abortion rights. Also look for increasing tension between the judiciarl and the executive branch over the rights of individuals who are deemed enemies of the state.
Social Security: An issue that does not get enough interest from our generation. While it seems boring, we are going to be the ones who will pay for it when it explodes. Watch for something visionary here — hopefully something other than business as usual. Matthew Gold is a politics major from New York, N.Y. He can be reached at mggold@princeton.edu.
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