My dog hates NBA playoff time. He always watches with me, and when the Minnesota Timberwolves make their annual first-round exit I enter into my postmortem crestfallen rage and throw things in his direction (not at him, PETA).
But this year I'm downright giddy. Minnesota's the one seed, the West is ridiculous good, and even the East (yes, the East) has some scintillating matchups.
Wednesday night the playoff picture waited literally until the final shot of the regular season to solidify. The Lakers' Kobe Bryant knocked down a rainbow three to trip the Blazers, 105-104, in double overtime to clinch the West's second seed. Gag me.
This may well be the last season in which the playoffs make any sense. The NBA will realign next year, switching from two divisions to three in each conference, a move spurred on by the soon-to-be-reality-and-not-just-my-nightmare Charlotte Bobcats expansion franchise (the topic of another column). And I am more than ready for Saturday's tipoff. Now that "The Apprentice" is over, I have nothing else to look forward to. Here is my completely partisan, positively picture-perfect playoff preview.
Eastern Conference
No. 4 Miami Heat (42-40) vs. No. 5 New Orleans Hornets (41-41)
Season series: MIA leads 3-1.
Best name: Skiptomylou, the streetball name of Rafer Alston, Miami guard. Even Rafer Alston is a great name — just a "Purina" away from a dog food company.
Key player: Jamaal Magloire, New Orleans center. New Orleans has the best player in this series (point guard Baron Davis) and possibly the second best in Magloire. He made the All-Star team this year and could be too much for Miami's Brian Grant to handle inside. If he can drop in 20 a game, the Hornets might upset the Heat.
The skinny: Miami surged into the final home-court spot on the last day thanks to a win — the team's 17th in its last 21 — and a Bucks loss. New Orleans dropped six of its last 10 to drop to the six seed.
The difference: Jamal Mashburn, New Orleans forward. If his knee injury keeps him out of this series, the door will be wide open for the young, healthy Heat.
Prediction: Miami in seven.
No. 3 Detroit Pistons (54-28) vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)
Season series: DET leads 3-1.
Best name: Dan Gadzuric, Milwaukee forward. He inexplicably changed the pronunciation of his name from "gad-ZUR-ick" to "gad-zur-EACH" sometime after joining the pro circuit. Was he too lazy to correct us while he was at UCLA?
Key player: Michael Redd, Milwaukee guard. The Pistons win with their defense, plain and simple, making Redd, a lethal three-point shooter and a guy with the potential to go off for 40, the most important player. I'm not giving the Bucks much chance either way in this series, but they have none if Redd can't find a rhythm.
The skinny: Milwaukee scores 98.2 points per game, but that number will plummet against the Pistons. With Rasheed Wallace around to boost the offense, Detroit just has too much.
The difference: The Motown defense. In the new generation of NBA ball, defense wins championships, and Detroit's 'D' will certainly be enough to get them a passing grade in round one.
Prediction: Detroit in five.
No. 2 New Jersey Nets (47-35) vs. No. 7 New York Knicks (39-43)
Season series: NJN leads 3-1.
Best name: Tamar Slay, New Jersey guard. If basketball doesn't work out, he has a potential career waiting in mass murdering.
Key player: Kenyon Martin, New Jersey forward. Martin stands out in this series due to his unique style and ability to take over a game. Star point guards Jason Kidd of the Nets and Stephon Marbury of the Knicks should cancel each other out, as should the rest of the squads, leaving Martin as the X-factor.
The skinny: How come I had to hear about Nets head coach Lawrence Frank every lousy day when he was on his 13-game debut winning streak, but I didn't hear a peep about his 12-15 finish?
Somehow New Jersey is the two seed and somehow they will get out of the first round due to Marbury being my most hated player ever.
The difference: Jason Kidd's wife and son. His wife's name, Joumana, definitely sounds like the kind of a name someone takes after getting a sex-change operation, and his kid's head is bigger than a pumpkin. They, along with Kidd's playoff panache, will propel the Nets .
Prediction: New Jersey in six.
No. 1 Indiana Pacers (61-21) vs. No. 8 Boston Celtics (36-46)
Season series: IND leads 3-1.
Best name: Chucky Atkins, Boston guard. "Child's Play 5: Chucky Gets Destroyed by the Indiana Pacers."
Key player: Ricky Davis, Boston guard. If he manages to get honest triple doubles every night, the Celtics might win a game.
The skinny: If the Pacers were in the West, they might have the same record, maybe even better. Their 20-8 mark against the Western folk this year was the best of any team in the NBA. That makes them for real, and that makes the Celtics screwed.
Meh. Boston GM Danny Ainge didn't want to be here anyway.
The difference: The Pacers are good; the Celtics are not.
Prediction: Indiana in four.
Western Conference
No. 4 Sacramento Kings (55-27) vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (52-30)
Season series: DAL leads 3-1.
Best name: Antawn Jamison, Dallas forward. How do you get the "twah" sound out of that? Have we been pronouncing it wrong all this time? Shouldn't it be "Anton"?
Key player: Bobby Jackson, Sacramento guard. Jackson is one of the most underrated players in the league, but his current battle with a strained abdominal muscle makes him a big question mark in the Kings' playoff hopes.
The skinny: This could be an amazing series. Both teams have jumpshooters galore, and neither is a fan of defense — a good combination for exciting basketball.
Still, I have no faith in Sacramento. The Kings have lost eight of 12 to end the season, including road games at Denver and Golden State (Golden State!) to end the season and drop from the two seed to the four. Every year there is a team that doesn't have a clue going into the postseason, and this time it's the Kings.
Dallas, on the other hand, is on the way up. They've won eight of 10 and took three of the four shootouts this season with Sacramento. The Kings are disjointed and clumsy, and the Mavs are loaded with talent.
The difference: Momentum. It's easy and cliché, but I'm tired, and I want to go to bed.
Prediction: Dallas in six.
No. 3 San Antonio Spurs (57-25) vs. No. 6 Memphis Grizzlies (50-32)
Season series: MEM leads 3-1.
Best name: Stromile Swift, Memphis forward. Honestly, Mom, why didn't you name me Stromile?
Key player: Manu Ginobili, Spurs guard. This guy seems to just murder the opposition. The feisty Argentinian sixth man always seems to have a great play in him when the Spurs need it. Memphis will have to put a stop to that to have a chance.
The skinny: The idea of a basketball team in Memphis scared me at first, but I suppose it is a step up from Vancouver. I love everything about the Grizzle, right down to the 4,246-year-old coach.
But . . .
The Spurs are straight nasty and just may be the best team in the league right now. They have won 11 straight and gave the T-Wolves a real run in the chase for the Midwest title. Memphis lost a playoff exhibition against those Wolves on Wednesday, getting blown out of its own building — not a good sign.
The difference: Tim Duncan has won two titles and knows how to get out of the first round.
Prediction: Spurs in five.
No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers (56-26) vs. No. 7 Houston Rockets (45-37)
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Best name: Bostjan Nachbar, Houston forward. Sounds like a Red Sox-loving "Star Trek" character. Cheers, Slovenia. Cheers.
Key player: Karl Malone, Los Angeles forward. The elder statesman sprained his ankle in the miraculous win against Portland the other night. He has been battling injuries all year, and if he plays, it could push the Lakers over the top.
The skinny: Those trying to cram the Yao/Shaq rivalry down our throats can rejoice! A Rockets vs. Lakers playoff series has arrived.
This is an interesting series. Both these teams are extremely hit-or-miss. Lakers head coach Phil Jackson called his own team "schizophrenic." You've got Yao and Shaq battling, Houston's Steve Francis vs. Kobe. It's a tough call.
My roommate is a Rockets fan, and the more he analyzes, it the more perfect he thinks Houston needs to play to win — that's risky. I want to pick the underdog here, but . . .
The difference: No matter how much you try to convince yourself otherwise, there is no stopping Shaq and Kobe when they are on a roll.
Prediction: Lakers in six.
No. 1 Minnesota Timberwolves (58-24) vs. No. 8 Denver Nuggets (43-39)
Season series: MIN leads 3-1.
Best name: Tie — Jeff Bzdelik, Denver head coach and Wally Szczerbiak, Minnesota guard. Not one but two(!) names with a random 'z' trapped between consonants.
Key player: Marcus Camby, Denver center. The Wolves' big three (Kevin Garnett, Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell) will get the job done, as will Nuggets ber-rookie Carmelo Anthony. But Denver's going to need someone else to put up big numbers, and Camby is the most likely candidate.
The skinny: The trendy thing here is to pick Denver. The Puppies have lost seven straight times in round one (a fact I am reminded of all too often), and in the brutal West the 1-8 series isn't as lopsided as normal.
But I can't pick Denver. If you take away the 17 games at the beginning of the season in which the Wolves went 9-8 while getting acclimated to a revamped roster and the 6-7 stretch in March when they were reintegrating key players returning from injury into the lineup, Minnesota is 43-9 in the rest of its games when healthy and cohesive. That's how they enter this postseason, so they shed the monkey.
The difference: Kevin Garnett knows he has no excuses to lose this year. And he won't let this team stumble. I hope he stays in the same room at the Denver Marriott that I was in during the NCAA Tournament.
"No, I'm serious. KG and I slept on the same pillows!"
Prediction: Minnesota in five. I hope so, anyway. For my dog's sake.
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