Florida flip-flops and a nation is left guessing

It was nothing if not a nail-biter.

In the closest presidential race in years, Election Day stretched into an appropriately long election night, and threatened to stretch even further as Vice President Al Gore at 3:50 a.m. recanted an earlier concession and the victor remained uncertain. Recounts and even court battles loom likely.

Updated results came in several times an hour as the television networks reported the numbers while their computers chewed on exit poll numbers from across the country.

The race, as predicted by many, centered on Florida. Early predictions based on exit polls led analysts to check the state off for Gore, but it proved false hope for the vice president's camp. Later last night the networks called it too close to call, and early this morning they moved it to Bush's side — but the incredibly narrow margin left questions even at 3:30 a.m. as to whether the victory was certain.

The flipflop on Florida tossed both camps between emotional extremes. The Gore camp, optimistic early in the night when Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida were all awarded to the vice president, was faced with vastly changed fortunes once Florida was pulled. Bush staffers, on the other hand, admitted after the fact to serious concern when the state was awarded to Gore.

University politics professor Fred Greenstein said he could not remember seeing the networks reverse their call on a state in previous elections. Meanwhile, some pundits questioned whether Gore's apparant early victory in Florida might have lowered turnout in western states or shifted more Gore votes to Nader as liberal voters felt confident in Gore's lead.

"There were studies years ago that the early reports of national projections lowered turnout in California," Greenstein said. The effect on this race is not yet known.

Strange controversies arose elsewhere in the nation. In Missouri a circuit court ordered polls to remain open after hours, bringing an onslaught of criticism from Republicans and appeals to a three-judge panel which eventually closed the polls about an hour and a half later.

"It was very strange, very odd indeed," Greenstein said of the Missouri controversy. "That's kind of in that freak, crazy category. It sounds like a local judge just bending the rules." Accusations of impropriety abounded, and the night ended with federal marshals stepping in to investigate and with St. Louis votes still uncounted.

As pundits and anchors filled air time waiting for returns, some talking heads discussed the apparant movement of the Democratic party back to its base, as Gore campaigned hard among minorities and labor voters.

Greenstein said he thought back to post-World War II America.

"It reminds me of 1948," he said, "when a small left wing splinter party attacked Truman and drove Truman to the left."

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Greenstein said that Gore had not continued following the moderate path that Clinton took to the White House in 1992 and 1996. "The Clintonian playbook has been a centrist playbook," he said. "[Gore's] is not a Clinton style but very much a kind of old Democratic thing."

Like many political scientists, Greenstein said he believes this election was in many ways Gore's to lose, as a sitting vice president in a time of unprecedented national prosperity.

"This is a race the Democrats should have won," he said. "The Republicans had a sharp team and a lot of money."

However, he said regardless of the result, neither candidate could enter the White House with enormous popular support. Pundits echoed his concerns about the ruling power of any candidate elected on such a slim margin.

If he wins, Bush may arrive in Washington with Republican control in Congress, but it will be a slim lead in the House, and the Senate may even be tied. Greenstein said he expected policy making in Washington to be made difficult by the very closely balanced federal government. But he did hold out hope that the president might be able to avoid partisan bickering.

"It's going to be either gridlock in Washington or centrist coalition building," he said.

While Gore and Bush sweated out one of the longest election nights in years, congressional leaders in both parties kept a close eye on returns from districts across the country.

In the Senate, Democrats gained a few seats but Republicans seemed likely to maintain a very slim lead in the upper chamber, with an even split possible.

Democrats held on to the high profile New York senate seat, left open by retiring Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan. In Delaware, Democratic Gov. Thomas Carper overtook Senate Finance Chairman William Roth, putting an end to the Republican's 30 years in the senate.

President Clinton's impeachment, a ghost that did not seem to haunt the races in the House, did visit the Florida Senate contest. Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, who was a prosecutor in the Senate trial was losing to Democrat Bill Nelson in the open seat left by Republican Connie Mack as of early this morning.

In Virginia, however, the GOP picked up a seat, with former Gov. George Allen (R) defeating incumbent Sen. Charles Robb (D). Early returns showed Sen. Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.) was going to hold on against Rep. Deborah Stabenow (D).

On the House side, Democrats had maintained hope that they could take back the majority, or at least gain seats against the already slim Republican lead. Early this morning it appeared that the GOP would hold on to control of the House.

The Democrats needed to gain eight seats in the House to win the majority. Early this morning, the Republicans had grabbed three seats from the other side of the aisle and were leading in four other races. The Democrats won at least one formerly Republican seat and were ahead in five others.

All 435 seats were up for reelection, but both parties focused on about 40 close races that would determine the makeup on the floor in January. Democrats lost power in the House after the 1994 Republican revolution landslide, orchestrated by former speaker Newt Gingrich.

It was a night mostly friendly to incumbents. Three Kentucky Republican incumbents fought off well funded Democratic challengers. Northern Virginia Democrat Jim Moran and his Republican neighbor Tom Davis both took easy victories.

House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert won his eighth term in his Illinois district. He will most likely be elected to another term as speaker. Minority leader Democrat Dick Gephardt grabbed an easy victory in Missouri.

In the 11 races for governor that were decided early last night, the Democrats won 5, including the very hotly-contested Vermont seat. The Green Mountain State governor's race had become in many ways a referendum on the state's law that allows legal unions between people of the same sex.