After weak showing in Delaware, Forbes likely to end campaign

Steve Forbes '70, millionaire publisher and Republican presidential candidate, will likely announce his withdrawal from the race in a press conference this afternoon, a campaign spokesman said yesterday.

After spending millions of dollars in his bid for the presidency, Forbes had a strong showing in the Iowa caucus last month. His message failed to catch on in New Hampshire, however, where he placed a distant third in the nation's first primary Feb. 1.

Forbes had hoped to make a comeback Tuesday in the Delaware primary, but took only 20 percent of the vote, well behind Texas Gov. George W. Bush and a few points behind Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who did not campaign in the state. After his poor showing in Delaware, many political experts had speculated that Forbes would experience pressure from the Republican establishment to leave the race.

Norm Ornstein, a political analyst who frequently appears on "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer," said he expects Forbes to drop out of the race today. "Everybody around him has confirmed to every reporter that he is leaving the race," Ornstein said.

University politics professor Larry Bartels agreed. "I think it seemed pretty clear that if he didn't do well in Delaware he wouldn't do well in other states, especially with McCain on the ballot," he said.

Forbes was in Michigan yesterday, about to begin campaigning for that state's upcoming primary, when he canceled his scheduled events and returned home to New Jersey. He will hold a press conference this afternoon in Washington, D.C., at which he is expected to announce his withdrawal.

"[His withdrawal] is not surprising," University politics professor Fred Greenstein said yesterday. "But it's a curiosity that a state as minuscule as Delaware should prick his balloon."

Costly

Forbes, who also ran in 1996, has financed his campaign almost entirely out of his own pocket, spending more than $65 million in personal funds on his two campaigns for the White House. He was criticized widely in 1996 by Republicans for campaigning against eventual nominee Bob Dole even after it was clear that Dole would win the nomination. Many party insiders blamed Forbes for damaging Dole early in the campaign.

Forbes won the Delaware and Arizona primaries in 1996, promising to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and institute a flat tax. This year, however, his campaign failed to gain momentum in the face of Bush's own enormous war chest and McCain's insurgent campaign.

With Forbes out of the race, only three candidates would remain: Bush and McCain, who are now fighting a bitter battle in South Carolina, and radio personality Alan Keyes, who is running at the fringes of the campaign with single digit numbers in the Delaware primary.

Both McCain and Bush were claiming yesterday that their own campaign would attract Forbes supporters. Some analysts claimed that Bush would have the most to gain from Forbes' departure.

"My guess is that more will go to Bush than to McCain, but not as many as you might calculate from looking at the ideologies," Bartels said.

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Greenstein said it is difficult to know who will profit from Forbes' announcement. "We don't have the kinds of surveys that tell a good story about how votes move," he said. "It's hard for me to know what was channeling into [Forbes'] vote."