Frank Newport of Gallup discusses public opinion polls, voter priorities

Despite the controversy behind Gallup's decision to move away frompolling leading up to the 2016 presidential elections, Editor-in-Chief of Gallup Frank Newport argued that polling is more than just election polling in a lecture Wednesday afternoon.

In light of the 2016 state presidential primaries, Newport asserted that Gallup decided to move away from focusing on polling during this election cycle in order to focus on overall public opinion.Although Gallup is known for its role in developing horse-race polling, and has been one of the primary voices on election polling, in recent years ithas decided to focus on issues and voter priorities instead of forecasting election results.

Newport is the editor-in-chief of Gallup and author of "Polling Matters—Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People." His analyses on the American public's views on elected officials and on public mood and behavior make regular appearances in his blog "Polling Matters."

"What is the role of public opinion — beyond voting — as a measurement?" he asked.

Public opinion is manifested in the vote and is essentially channeled through elections, he said. Like elections, polls help measure public opinion, and by paying attention to what people are saying in between the elections, polls allow us to better understand what the public believes in.

Despite Gallup's attempts to use fair polling methods, public reactions to their polls are frequently negative. According to Newport, individuals naturally tend to criticize poll results that do not overlap with their personal beliefs, which leads them to dismiss the poll as a whole.

"Naturally, they shoot the messenger," Newport said.

Another area of contention is in methodology; some people argue that a sample cannot possible measure the entire population, or that a sample focuses too much on one specific group of people rather than the country as a whole. Many also fear that polling is imprecise and can distort certain facts.

"It's a controversial job," Newport said.

Gallup has also garnered controversy in its decision to move away from focusing on polling during this election cycle in order to focus on overall public opinion. Although Gallup is known for its role in developing horse-race polling, and has been one of the primary voices on election polling, in recent years ithas decided to focus on issues and voter priorities instead of forecasting election results.

Newport explained that the intention behind this was to measure public opinion and determine the role of public opinion in polling.

Newport asked what the role of public opinion in changing the field of polling should be. Three of the primary goals of polling are to forecast, understand and guide. Forecasting begins by analyzing polls in order to produce specific results that will allow the data to be integrated as a whole.In understanding the polls, Newport noted that it is important to explore the reasons behind polls' deviating from actual results. Such explorations are important to improving polling systems in that they help to locate areas which need improvement and adaptation.

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Over the years, Gallup polling has had to evolve in response to social changes that have arisen, including rapidly improving technology. Polling initially involved person-to-person interaction, which later gave way to polling through telephone and cellphone as communication technology became more advanced. Newport noted that the majority of polls are now conducted on cell phones, due to their ubiquity and convenience.

Despite changes in technology and form, Newport does not believe that poll results differ significantly based on the methodologies used to achieve them. He added that even if a poll to determine President Barack Obama's approval rating were carried out through house-to-house methods, the result would be the same as if the poll were performed using technology alone.

"There's no secret sauce to it," he said.

The lecture, titled "Controversy Over the Role of Public Opinion in Presidential Elections," took place in Dodds Auditorium in Robertson Hall at 4:30 p.m. The event was co-sponsored by the University's Survey Research Center and the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics.