Wilson School professor discusses potential threat China poses to United States

While China’s power may not yet be comparable to that of the United States, China could still pose a significant threat to U.S. security, co-Director of the China and the World Program at the Wilson School Thomas J. Christensen argued at a lecture on Wednesday.

“I don't think China is going to be a peer competitor of the U.S.,” he said. “That’s where my optimism ends. China is already powerful enough to spoil our whole day.”

Christensen is the William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War and served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under the Bush administration from 2006 to 2008. His discussion centered on the role of China in the modern world through the lens of his new book, “The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power.”

Wilson School professor Rory Truex ’07 described Christensen’s view of China as one of optimism, explaining that Christensen’s new book is opposed to the notion that China and the United States are inherently headed toward conflict. Rory said such a perspective was “very welcome” given recent concerns about China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.

“I see two major challenges; I’m called optimistic,” Christensen said. “But I do see them as very difficult problems.”

The two major problems concern security and global governance.

According to Christensen, the security question is how to discourage China from destabilizing East Asia. Christensen explained that China can have a destabilizing effect because of its tendency to settle disputes through the use of force.

Convincing China to actively contribute to keeping the international system safe will be difficult, Christensen said.

Issues of global financial stability, as well as humanitarian concerns or environmental problems such as climate change, cannot be solved by any one country alone. In this context, China plays an important role, as international policies will not be able to move forward if China obstructs the efforts of other countries, or even if China just sits on the sidelines, Christensen said.

For example, it is hard for the international community to pressure a country like Iran or North Korea, for example, using sanctions unless China is on board.

He characterized China as a country that is still developing, but with “a post-colonial chip on its shoulder.”

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“Never before has a developing country been asked to contribute so much," he added.

Christensen cited a 2000 article he co-authored with Richard Betts and noted that if China handles its rise and its region as badly as the United States handled its growth, the world will be in for big trouble.

Christensen said that although the Chinese military has been land-based historically, recent developments indicate that China could expand its military reach offshore. Among the country’s new innovations are ballistic missiles of significant capability and diesel electric submarines.

However, even these won’t provide China a lead on the States in real politics, Christensen stated.

“This is not a new Cold War,” Christensen said, adding that China is not a real enemy, although it presents real challenges.

Christensen further noted that the United States must exercise caution in order to avoid alienating the very allies it aims to protect, explaining that our allies are dependent on China economically.

Drawing from his experience working for the Department of State, Christensen said that it is “unfair” to criticize the Obama administration for increasing tension with China, as compared to the Bush administration.

“I’m not saying everything’s going great, but the China that the Obama administration is dealing with is not the same China Bush had to deal with,” Christensen explained.

The global governance challenge is of greater significance for the Unites States than the security issue, according to Christensen. While the United States has plenty of experience adopting “diplomacy as a military tool or the military as diplomacy tool” in order to de-escalate problems, it has no experience convincing a nation as influential as China to cooperate, Christensen explained.

Luckily for Americans, there are ways to respond to the twin challenges, Christensen said.

The United States is not going to determine policies of China, Christensen explained, and all it can do is to create an environment such that China might decide that it is better not to pursue greatness through force.

According to Christensen, China is at the heart of a world integrated by transnational production and on-time delivery, and is able to influence other countries because of this. At the same time, however, China also “has real disincentive to attack all of its neighbors” precisely because of this interdependence, since it needs those countries to provide it with parts.

To address the China issue, the United States must adopt a very strong military position as well as a very strong alliance structure. At the same time, these must be coupled with diplomacy that doesn’t try to restrict Chinese growth or attempt to overthrow the existing Chinese regime.

“Focus on prescribed changes in behavior, not regime changes,” Christensen said.

Christensen concluded his talk by saying that the United States should try to find incentives for China to cooperate to improve its own nation, then link those domestic efforts to international policies.

He cited the progress made on the climate change front under the Obama administration as an example of “smart diplomacy,” one that tied China’s need to reduce low-altitude air pollution to a global need to fight global warming.

The talk, sponsored by the Wilson School’s China and the World Program and the East Asian studies department, was open to the public and took place at 4:30 p.m. in Robertson Hall.