Last week wasn't a terrible one for Pwang, but it wasn't perfect either. My boys from Rutgers were up by eight on South Florida with 15 seconds to play before impressive freshman Matt Grothe tossed his first touchdown of the game to pull the Bulls within two.
USF failed on the two point conversion and Rutgers won the game 22-20, but they failed to cover the four point spread. On top of that, I blew it big time expecting Iowa to cover at home against Ohio State and ended up 3-2-1 on the week.
After five weeks, I think it's clear that Ohio State is head-and-shoulders above any other team this year, even though I'm not convinced they could beat their own squad from last year. I don't really know how that would work anyway. I guess Troy Smith would get pretty tired if he had to play for both sides, and Ted Ginn Jr. wouldn't be able to figure out which way to run.
This team would lose to both last year's Texas and USC teams, but luckily won't have to play them en route to the national championship this fall. Instead, Ohio State gets to roll past some dreadful competition, playing the likes of Bowling Green, Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern before "The Game" at home on Nov. 18.
The most interesting question to ask at this point in the season is who has the best chance to meet OSU in Tempe. The pool of remaining unbeatens includes Auburn, USC, West Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Louisville, Georgia, Oregon, Boise State, Rutgers, Missouri and, yes, Wake Forest.
Immediately you can remove Georgia, Oregon, Boise St, Rutgers, Mizzou and Wake from the national title picture. Georgia has looked awful in close victories against inferior competition in the past two weeks and Oregon isn't that good to begin with, plus the national media will never give them enough respect to make the title game.
Michigan will get its shot at the championship when it collides with Ohio State, so that leaves five teams vying for that second spot in the final. We'll have a much clearer idea of where they all stand after the great college football weekend we have on tap.
Featured Pick:
No. 9 LSU (-2) at No. 5 Florida
Florida is lucky to be sitting at number five after narrowly getting off Rocky Top unscathed three weeks ago. Defensive tackle Marcus Thomas, a big time NFL talent, is out with a torn bicep which he suffered in that game at Tennessee and he will be sorely missed against the Tigers.
Florida running back DeShawn Wynn might be out as well with a sprained knee, but Florida can't run the ball even with him in the lineup so his absence wouldn't really change the team's offensive outlook. The second leading rusher on the team is true freshman Tim Tebow, the backup quarterback. Head coach Urban Meyer isn't afraid to give Tebow meaningful snaps, which became evident last week against Alabama when he pulled senior quarterback Chris Leak after a 45-yard run to the 2-yard line in order to let Tebow run the ball in for the score.
Tebow is a huge talent both running and throwing, and almost unseated Leak — a four year starter — before the season began. A split quarterback system never works in crunch time and I don't expect this one to be any different.
LSU is nasty good on defense, allowing only 7.4 points per game and is actually favored going into the Swamp. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell is a tank at six feet, six inches and 252 pounds; he has thrown for 1246 yards and 10 scores, but he doesn't utilize his size in the running game, having totaled only 13 yards on the ground this season. LSU hasn't scored under 45 points except for its game at Auburn and Florida's defense isn't on the same level as Auburn's and especially without Marcus Thomas. Florida has three ber tough games in a row against LSU, Auburn and Georgia and won't win more than one of them.
Pick: LSU (-2) over Florida.
No. 14 Oklahoma (+5) neutral No. 7 Texas
Colt McCoy and Texas haven't impressed me so far this season, but Oklahoma isn't the team it once was either. After coming over from Auburn, Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has the Longhorns allowing only a startling 36.6 rushing yards per game, but three of their games were against Sam Houston State, Rice and North Texas; hardly elite competition.
I don't think Texas is great, but Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson won't run on them easily and OU lost to an Oregon team that isn't all that good. Adrian Peterson can't carry the Sooners all by himself and if Paul Thompson implodes it will be a long day for OU.
Pick: Texas (-5) over Oklahoma.
No. 13 Tennessee (-2.5) at No. 10 Georgia
Jor Tereshinski will be back to play quarterback for Georgia this week. It doesn't matter. Georgia hasn't looked like the No. 10 team in the country with or without him. Tennessee is finally back to old form and quarterback Erik Ainge and wideout Robert Meachem are really clicking together. The Vols are only a one point loss to Florida away from being undefeated themselves and Georgia won't even keep it competitive.
Pick: Tennessee (-2.5) over Georgia.
No. 11 Oregon (+5) at No. 16 California
I don't like Oregon or Cal. Oregon is overrated and Cal got lunched at Tennessee. I guess one of them has to win though.
Pick: Cal (-5) over Oregon.
Michigan State (+16) at No. 6 Michigan
Michigan State embarrassed themselves, their fans and their parents when they lost to lowly Illinois last week. It was the Illini's first road win in the Big Ten since 2002 and they might not get another for the next four years. You'd be hard-pressed to find a position on the entire field where Michigan State has superior talent to Michigan's, but they do play Michigan tough and this is basically the entire season for them now.
Pick: Michigan State (+16) over Michigan.
Princeton at Colgate
Princeton is allowing only 243 total yards per game and has shown flashes on offense, but they are only scoring 19.7 points per game. The Tigers are now up to No. 20 in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings and are ranked ahead of 14 Division 1-A teams. But Colgate has snapped two Princeton three-game winning streaks in the past two years and is expecting to do it again. Colgate runs for 156 yards per game and will lean on sophomore running back Jordan Scott to carry the offense this week. If Princeton moves the ball and stops turning it over they should roll, but turnovers don't just stop themselves.
Pick: Princeton 24, Colgate 20.
Overall Record
A.T.S. ( 13-9-2). Last Week. A.T.S. (3-2-1).
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