Poll says Corzine leads by 10 points

A poll conducted by Wilson School graduate students suggests that Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) leads Republican Doug Forrester by more than 10 points in the race for New Jersey governor, a larger margin than other recent polls have indicated.

Students in WWS 507: Quantitative Analysis did most of the phone interviews of 776 randomly selected New Jersey voters over a two-week period in late October. Professional pollsters conducted some interviews as well.

"Not only were we as students able to participate and learn from the polls, the voters of New Jersey are going to be able to learn and benefit from it," said Jules Kopel-Bailey GS, who participated in the interviews.

The survey, undertaken in coordination with the Wilson School Survey Research Center, showed Corzine with an 11.5 percent lead over Republican Doug Forrester, a larger margin than seven other recent polls have indicated.

Economics and public policy professor Alan Krueger, who teaches WWS 507 and directed the poll, said polling inevitably yields inexact results because it is impossible to predict who, exactly, will turn out to vote.

"Polling is unusual because you have to find out the population parameter on Election Day," said Krueger, who is also the assistant director of the Princeton University Survey Center.

The class conducts a poll roughly every other year, Krueger said, but "this year we were much more professional about it."

Roughly 18 percent of those contacted by the Wilson School pollsters agreed to be interviewed, which is comparable to the response rate of Gallup polls, according to Krueger.

The raw data generated by the random sample required some finessing before final results could be announced. Upon discovering that young people and minorities were underrepresented in the survey, the pollsters weighted responses from those demographic groups to more accurately represent the New Jersey population.

If the demographic cross-tabs are not weighted, the Wilson School shows a 7.5 percent lead for Corzine, which tracks more closely with polls conducted by The New York Times, WNBC and Rasmussen Reports.

"I don't know if the other polls weight their samples," Krueger said.

Kopel-Bailey, who has previously worked on political campaigns in Oregon, likewise defended the decision to weight.

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"Between the weights that we used from the census data and the other statistics we used to calculate the overall numbers, I'm confident we received very robust data," Kopel-Bailey said.

Kopel-Bailey also said the poll's sample size was larger than those of most other polls.

Krueger said the Wilson School's polling methology this year represents an improvement over past years when respondents were selected from lists of telephone numbers rather than registered voters.

He acknowledged, however, that the recent onslaught of "mudslinging" on the campaign trail could change voters' opinions.

The last poll interviews were conducted on Oct. 27.

In addition to the "horse race" question on the governor's race, interviewers also asked about voters' income, political leanings and attitudes toward specific issues in the election. Krueger said that information will be used for problem sets later in the semester, allowing students to work closely with the data they collected.

"As a student, it's really interesting to have a connection to the data you're using," said Frankki Bevins GS, who is also enrolled in WWS 507.

The most important issues on voters' minds are government corruption, property taxes and gas prices, according to the poll.

The poll also reported that only 13 percent of those polled thought New Jersey is "better off" than it was four years ago, with more than a third responding that the state is "worse off."

Similarly, interviews found that only one quarter of voters believe that the United States is "headed in the right direction," while almost two-thirds believe the country is "off on the wrong track."