Global warming may cause Jersey flooding, study says

Rising sea levels caused by global warming may inundate up to three percent of New Jersey's land area over the next century while affecting up to nine percent of the state with periodic coastal flooding, according to a study by Princeton researchers released last week.

"Flooding is already occurring, and beach and land defense are a yearly expense," said geosciences and Wilson School professor Michael Oppenheimer. "These effects are on a continuum and are already producing difficulties."

The study was carried out through the Science, Technology and Environmental Policy (STEP) Program of the Wilson School by Oppenheimer, Matthew Cooper '05 and University of Maryland graduate student Michael Beevers.

The researchers used digital elevation models and current land use data from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) to project the impact of rising sea levels and to make policy recommendations to the state government.

"We think that this release of the report will bring it to the public's attention so that they may understand the serious affects of global warming, at least at the local levels," NJDEP spokesperson Elaine Makatura said.

Drawing comparisons to Hurricane Katrina, Cooper stressed that the threat of the rising sea levels needs to be addressed now, not later.

"Before the devastation from Hurricane Katrina, there were dozens of reports that had come out about the vulnerabilities of the coastline," Cooper said. "It was not a surprise to any of the people who had read the reports and no surprise to the policy makers."

A 0.61 meter rise in sea levels would cause severe coastal flooding, exceeding the 2.9 m water level, which is the "100-year" flood standard used by federal and stage agencies, up to three to four times more frequently in New Jersey. A 1.22 m rise would make such flooding 20 times more likely, the report said.

The New Jersey coast is especially susceptible to inundation and erosion due to its flat coastal plain, sloping shoreline, sandy beaches, salt marshes and barrier islands, the report said. Due to a rise in sea levels, higher levels of sodium in the Delaware River will affect the quality of drinking water along the river.

The researchers proposed the regulation of greenhouse gas emission and the government purchase of coastal lands as possible options to help mitigate the effects of global warming.

Several states, including Maryland and Florida, currently have programs in place for acquiring vulnerable coastal areas. To date, the NJDEP has preserved approximately 22 square kilometers of wetlands and inland areas, according to the report.

Because of the ineffectiveness of purchasing coastal wetlands — most of which are privately owned — the researchers in the study proposed a gradual withdrawal of property and communities from the coastal areas as the best response to the threats.

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Cooper stressed that national, regional and municipal communities need to work together to address the problem.

"We need a regional approach at a holistic level. Agencies and certainly the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection could be the major regulatory body responsible for making changes in coastal regulation," Cooper said.

Makatura said the options suggested in the report are being reviewed: "We're only just beginning to look at what some of the solutions may be."

The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina underlines the importance of their research.

"I hate to think how much was known and how much that could have been done to protect people — and help people today — who live in coastal regions," Cooper said. "That's why I want to spread this message. It's not a message of destruction but a message of urgency — the urgency needed to address the vulnerability of our coastline."