Al Qaeda is not so much focused on an immediate radical Islamic revolution in the Middle East as they are on laying the groundwork for such a revolution, Near Eastern Studies professor Michael Doran GS '97 told a packed Dodds Auditorium on Monday.
"They have a tremendous longterm view of things," Doran said. They seek to influence the state in the direction of radical Islam over time, he added.
Doran is a leading scholar on Middle East issues, including terrorism, U.S. foreign policy and the Arab-Israeli conflict. His lecture, titled "Al Qaeda's Grand Strategy (and Ours Too)," highlighted the sophistication and patience of the radical Islamic network infamous for orchestrating terrorist attacks throughout the world, most notably those on Sept. 11, 2001.
Doran also said that al Qaeda pays attention to public opinion and has spent the last 50 years analyzing politics and figuring out how radical Islamic movements have failed in the past. "It makes them much more dangerous and much more sophisticated than previous generations," Doran said. "Because of this sophistication, I don't think they're going away any time soon."
While some scholars said recently that al Qaeda is fighting an ideological battle with the West, Doran said that the organization's primary objective is not to destroy but to provoke the United States.
"Al Qaeda is carrying out a struggle for a new order in their region," Doran said. "It's about relationships between Muslims first and foremost and [the United States is] secondary. This is not simply an ideological fight."
Doran said the al Qaeda objectives include drawing Americans to be involved in the Middle East. "Bringing the war right to the heartland has a polarizing effect in Islamic society," he said.
Al Qaeda hopes that this polarization will allow them to attract a certain segment of youth to their side, primarily young, idealistic men, Doran said.
"I think they're going to lose," Doran said of al Qaeda, adding that the network's defeat will not be achieved immediately.
"Our ideology is not bad — freedom, economic development, democracy — but if you look at all the problems in the Middle East, you can see that democracy alone will not fix them," Doran said. "Even if recent positive events continue, there is still a lot of fertile soil for radical Islamic groups to operate."
"I was really interested to hear him [Doran] talk about structure," said Katrina Rogachevsky '07, who attended the lecture. "People talk about al Qaeda as if it's just chaos, but it was interesting to hear that it has an overarching purpose that is very thought-out and that it has real longterm objectives."
"He puts it clearer than anyone I've heard that it's not just them versus the West," Sarah Karam '07 said. "It is a regional struggle for power within the Middle East and Muslim world."
The lecture was organized by the Wilson School.
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