Worth the Academy's Weyl?

Best Picture: "The Aviator."

Despite a year filled with a number of excellent films, Martin Scorsese's psycho-dramatic epic "The Aviator" seems a near shoe-in. Not only is a Scorsese win long overdue, he has been passed over by the Academy for such great films as "Taxi Driver" and "Goodfellas", but "The Aviator" is also an archetypal Oscar-winning film. Online betting markets favor this deeply personal and fantastically broad story of the eccentric Howard Hughes two-to-one. But don't count out Clint Eastwood's masterful "Million Dollar Baby" as a dark horse. Regarded by the critics as Eastwood's best ever, the Academy's romance with Dirty Harry's continually impressive work shouldn't be underestimated.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Hillary Swank for "Million Dollar Baby."

This Oscar holds little suspense because golden girl Hillary Swank gave an absolutely breathtaking performance in this heart-wrenching drama. Portraying a driven, female boxer, as she struggles to escape a sordid and abusive past, Swank gave one of the best performances film has seen for years. Critics loved the unglamorous Imelda Stauton in "Vera Drake" but aging, relative unknowns have little success in a world of Oscar glitz.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Aviator."

While betting markets and Hollywood gossip favor the often ignored Jamie Foxx to pick up this category— particularly after a surprisingly strong showing in nominations for "Ray"— Leonardo DiCaprio's victory at the Golden Globes and his mind-bending ability to get inside the sometimes psychotic and often heroic mind of Howard Hughes leads me to buck the conventional wisdom on this one.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Morgan Freeman for "Million Dollar Baby."

Morgan Freeman's ineffable charm, his soothing and constant presence, and the shocking lack of recognition from the Academy that he has received despite being one of the most accomplished African-American actors all tilt heavily in his favor. While his audience-winning demeanor left the critics more sympathetic to the down-to-earth Thomas Hayden Church of "Sideways," Freeman is more likely to win-over the upper-middlebrow Academy.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Cate Blanchett for "The Aviator."

Hollywood likes nothing more than clever self-examination, so it is little wonder that all eyes are on bright star Cate Blanchett for her endearing performance as Katherine Hepburn in "The Aviator." After narrowly missing an award in 1998 for Best Actress in "Elizabeth," Blanchett is poised to beat out the critical favorite, the intimately human Virgina Masden of "Sideways".

Best Directing: Martin Scorsese for "The Aviator."

This category is a true horse race. Facing off are Clint Eastwood, probably the Academy's favorite director, nominated for his directing job in "Million Dollar Baby" and Martin Scorsese, the perennially neglected directing master who has been nominated six times without anything to show for it. Scorsese has a slight edge because of the amazing scope of his accomplishment. But after falling in his bid last year to Peter Jackson, Eastwood is close behind.

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Best Original Screenplay: Charlie Kaufman for "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."

While I could not understand why Charlie Kauffman's self-indulgent and undisciplined, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" found widespread success across the critical and public spheres, Hollywood loves Charlie Kauffman's writing and analysts agree he dominates this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for "Sideways."

Given its universal critical praise, "Sideways" is sure to sweep up this category. Traditionally, the Academy also tends to favor cultural intelligentsia in this category. Besides, this contained and subtle picture, which will likely be passed over in other categories, deserves to take something home.