Relations thaw in East Asia

For the first time in over 55 years, commercial planes can fly directly from Taiwan to China and vice versa. While this development did not make the front page of The New York Times and actually only means a few hours less plane time for travelers, it signifies a small improvement in relations between the world's largest country and a small island that has defied Chinese power for the last half century.

Since the Koumingtang (KMT) or Nationalist Party arrived in Taiwan in 1949, fleeing the Communists in China, relations between the two countries have been straine d. Current Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's 2000 election only increased hostilities. Chen is Taiwan's first president not from the KMT; he belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a more pro-independence government. His platform calls for an explicit separation of China and Taiwan and formal diplomatic recognition of the island. China insists that Taiwan is not and has never been a sovereign nation. The Communist government has strategically placed missiles to ensure the Taiwanese take their policy seriously.

For over half a century, China and Taiwan have coexisted under strained but relatively peaceful conditions. Taiwan has clearly been politically independent of China in every way but in name. With China's recent economic boom, however, economic ties have grown stronger. The BBC states that bilateral trade in 2004 was $70 billion, an increase of more than 34 percent from 2003. At least 300,000 businessmen from Taiwan now live in China, often returning to Taiwan to visit relatives. The truth is, the distinction between those who are Taiwanese and those who are Chinese is often blurred. A recent poll in the Economist indicates that 41 percent of Taiwan's residents consider themselves Taiwanese, but today, 98 percent of Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese.

The Taiwanese and Chinese, however, are not the only ones concerned about relations between the two countries. Many former Taiwanese now living in the States strongly support Taiwanese independence and suggest that the Taiwanese are a people distinct from the Chinese. But their visions of explicit democratic self-determination do not hold up when confronted with reality.

The stubborn pro-independents foolishly harbor the belief that Taiwan is capable of standing alone as its own country. To even fight for its "freedom" — a fight that China insists it will win because of its manpower and growing number of weapons — Taiwan must rely on America's military might and overall support. But Colin Powell's October 2004 visit to China indicates that America is not willing to defend Taiwan under all circumstances. With China's economic growth and the European Union's resulting courtship of the country, America is reluctant to lose China's support, at least economically.

Of course, this does not mean that Taiwan should formally reunite with China either. When Great Britain ceded Hong Kong back to China in 1999, the Chinese painted a rosy future for the province with open elections and the continuation of all basic freedoms. Instead, during the September 2004 elections, Beijing skillfully manipulated electoral rules to maximize its representation in Hong Kong's government. It has also mandated that, for now, the successor to current Hong Kong leader Tung Chee-hwa cannot be chosen by direct elections. Mr. Tung conveniently leads a pro-China government. China's insistence that a "two countries, one rule" unification would solve the "Taiwan problem" clearly ought to be doubted.

From now until Feb. 20, six Taiwanese and six Chinese airlines have scheduled a total of 24 direct China-Taiwan flights, to be evenly divided between them. But tensions have not gone away and, in reality, probably never will. This improvement, like past relation-building actions, benefits both sides economically, but not politically. Neither China nor Taiwan will cede its political stance because neither side is willing to lose face.

An easy solution that pleases both sides does not exist. While the current status quo is unstable, it benefits Taiwan and China and is certainly better than an all-out war. It allows both countries to continue strengthening their economic ties, possibly lessening future hostilities. Despite its political ambiguity, it allows Taiwan to be independent, at least in theory, and keeps China at bay. So long as Chen and the fiercely pro-independence Taiwanese stay politically realistic, relations between China and Taiwan can either grow or, at minimum, remain in their current state. Actions to the contrary will only cause relations and hopes for peace to disintegrate. Anna Huang is a sophomore from Westlake, Ohio. She can be reached at ajh@princeton.edu.