Just a few hours after the outcome of the presidential election became clear, congressional economist Wendell Primus, a Democrat, faced a tough task as he spoke Wednesday on the likely legislative changes that will occur in the United States over the next few years.
Primus currently serves as the minority staff director of the Joint Economic Committee for Congress. He spoke on the topic of "Deficits, Taxes and Social Policy: What Will Happen During the Next Four Years?" The lecture was held in Robertson Hall and sponsored by the Wilson School.
Primus's talk had three themes: the current state of the economy, social trends and what the future holds.
As President Bush's first term comes to a close, Primus expressed his concern over the large federal budget deficit.
"Eventually, that sea of red ink will have implications on economic growth," he said.
Primus cited Bush's tax cuts as a major contributor to this issue. He described current tax policies as a "real fiscal crisis" and explained that tax cuts are "where we spent most of the money over the last four years."
As for the social changes that have occurred in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s, Primus said "the decade of the 1990s was really a very good period for low-income populations and children."
The strong economic growth of the 1990s "shrunk low-income black and Hispanic populations" and caused an "enormous shifting of [those populations] into the middle class," he said.
Primus described how Bush's second term will affect several individual issues.
On the question of Social Security, Primus does not believe that the program will change because "the rank-and-file Republicans are still not for privatization."
Primus was also pessimistic about improvement in health issues over the next few years. He does not believe Bush will allow Canadian prescription drug imports or embryonic stem cell research.
"Bush is going to stick to his guns," Primus said.
He also addressed the future of the economy in general, saying that Bush campaigned in 2000 on the premise that Americans were paying more in taxes than they had in the past. That claim, however, was only true for the top quintile.
Now that the nation faces a substantial deficit and it is unlikely that Republicans will support tax increases, Primus said additional revenue will have to come from reduced spending.
"I don't see where the Republicans are going given what they've already accomplished," he said.
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