Looking ahead: Frist '74 likely to run in 2008

When he assumed the Senate's top job after only eight years in public office, the political ascent of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist '74 ranked among the most impressive in decades. At the time, supporters openly speculated on a possible bid for the presidency in 2008.

Wednesday's banner outcome for the Republican Party — four new Senate seats, control of the House of Representatives and the reelection of President Bush — has only bolstered the possibility of Frist running for the White House.

"He's definitely on my short list," said John Fortier, an expert at the American Enterprise Institute who studies presidential politics.

Though regarded with some trepidation when he first became leader because of his occasionally socially-moderate views, Frist's recent conservative votes and rhetoric — spanning judicial appontments, partial birth abortion and same-sex marriage — will help him fend off moderate Republican contenders in 2008, experts agreed.

"I would never have called him a moderate, but now he's one of the top conservative senators," Fortier said. "If you want to run for the presidency in the Republican Party, you have to be able to speak to conservatives."

The majority leader's newfound conservatism has appealed strongly to Bush.

"Frist has been very loyal to the president," Fortier said. "Perhaps that lends to some kind of tacit support or some of the president's advisers working for him."

There are rumors in Washington that the president's top political adviser Karl Rove is interested in working on a possible Frist campaign, Fortier said.

Despite his popularity, recent high-profile failures on Frist's legislative agenda — the Federal Marriage Amendment, a budget accord, an energy bill and welfare reauthorization — highlight his legislative inexperience.

"He'd been brought up real quick and the adaptation to the demands had not been that successful," said John Samples, director of the Center for Representative Government at the Cato Institute. "What was demanded of a majority leader, maybe he wasn't doing it all that well."

But the Republicans' gain of four seats in the Senate, for a new total of 55, should help Frist, said Brandice Canes-Wrone, a Wilson School professor who studies electoral politics.

"Even a change of three seats is big in this context," Canes-Wrone said. However, if votes are split on party lines, Democrats will retain the ability to filibuster.

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For his part, Frist has remained mum on his plans for when he leaves the Senate in 2006, after his self-imposed two-term limit.

Though requests to Frist's office for comment went unanswered, last month he told The Chattanoogan, a paper in his home state of Tennessee, that he had "no idea" about life after the Senate.

Asked about a run for the presidency, he replied, "Seriously, I do not know . . . My entire focus at this time is getting President Bush reelected and trying to pick up a few additional Senate seats, which will make my job a lot easier."

The importance of Frist's candidacy should not be underestimated, argued Canes-Wrone. After this year's election, "it's clear that Republican majorities or Republican pluralities are not some sort of aberration that only occur with someone like a movie star," she said.

"There's a more solid Republican base and Independents are willing to vote Republican, so it increases the likelihood a Republican like Frist could win the presidency."