Israel, America, and the challenges of occupation

You could be forgiven for missing an anniversary that slipped by this past weekend: it's been exactly ten years since Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, flanked by a beaming Bill Clinton, shook hands on the White House lawn and embarked on what became know as the Oslo peace process. The main reason for this week's muted (or nonexistent) commemoration, of course, is that Israel and the Palestinians seem further from peace than ever. Back in 1993, Arafat and Rabin looked to a future of two sovereign states, warm political relations and economic success. Ten years on, the future has arrived and it doesn't look so good: Palestinian militants detonating themselves and Israeli civilians on the streets of Jerusalem; Israeli gunships assassinating Palestinian "terrorists" and innocent bystanders; and an ongoing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip which only deepens the root cause of the conflict: the confiscation and settlement of Palestinian land by Israel.

After ten years, the two sides are probably further away from peace than ever. Moreover, the international context for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has changed fundamentally. In 1993, many Americans were still basking in the triumph of Operation Desert Storm, offering paeans to a new Middle East and to an era of international tranquility. By 2003, in contrast, the United States had suffered a catastrophic terrorist attack on its own soil and, in a response of devastating military power and hazy logic, had invaded and occupied Iraq. For Bill Clinton, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process was a side issue to the main business of making America's economy boom. For George W. Bush, the political regeneration of the entire Middle East has become a critical test of America's power. With more than 120,000 American troops on the ground in Iraq, it's obvious that Israel-Palestine is a crucial part of the broader puzzle. Can America remake the Middle East in its own image? And will this be enough to deter terrorism and protect the American people from another Sept. 11?

The first step towards a better policy involves identifying what's gone wrong in the last decade. First, the Oslo peace process encouraged Israelis and Palestinians to collaborate on small issues initially, and to tackle the major causes of the conflict only after many years of "trust-building." Unfortunately, this provision allowed both sides to imagine that the Oslo process would culminate in their own desired outcome, and fostered unrealistic expectations. Second, Oslo made no reference to Israeli settlements, and thus allowed successive Israeli governments (both "dovish" and "hawkish") to double the existing number of settlers in the Occupied Territories. Unsurprisingly, this created incredible resentment amongst Palestinians, and further impeded any territorial solution to the conflict. Third, Oslo and its successor — the Bush administration's "roadmap" — discredited secular nationalism within the Palestinian political scene, and drove many Palestinians towards militant Islam. The lack of political progress along the Oslo track (and with the new roadmap) has only strengthened the argument of Hamas and Islamic Jihad that the Palestinian cause is best advanced through terrorism. Worse, even groups like the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, with roots in secular nationalism rather than Islamism, have employed suicide attacks in Israeli cities in spite of the damage caused to innocent civilians and the negotiating process. While the roadmap appeared to halt this slide into chaos for a few months, the events of recent weeks suggest that we are on the verge of a still more violent phase in the conflict.

The lessons for Israel — and perhaps for the United States — are clear. Peacemaking depends not only on bold gestures (like the handshake on the White House lawn) but on concrete progress: Palestinians and Iraqis need to see immediate and tangible improvements in their lives, rather than promises of statehood or economic independence at some point in the future. These improvements are simply incompatible with ongoing foreign occupation. Just as Israel has to remove its soldiers and settlers completely from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, American policymakers must effect a transition to Iraqi rule that is guided not by the US military but by the international community. If this journey from occupation to self-determination is to succeed, Israel and the United States must believe that the societies that will result from the process — a sovereign and territorially-viable Palestine, and an independent Iraq — will be more stable and successful than the fractured and volatile states that are currently under military occupation. The continuing terrorist attacks in Israel and Iraq demonstrate the terrible truth that this occupation hardly produces security. Moreover, the apparent resurgence of militant violence even amongst previously secular groups suggests that the clock is ticking on a peaceful and democratic solution to these problems. Whether policymakers in Israel and the United States grasp these lessons in the next decade, however, remains to be seen.

Nicholas Guyatt is an assistant professor of history.