This weekend of men's basketball could decide everything in the Ivy League or nothing. Princeton (13-9 overall, 7-2 Ivy League) sits squarely in third place in the Ivy standings — on the outside looking in.
The two big dogs on top are Penn (17-5, 9-0) and Brown (14-10, 9-1), both of which defeated the Tigers earlier in the season. Yale (12-11, 6-4) is in fourth place, all but mathematically eliminated.
Penn and Princeton are both traveling north to take on the Elis and the Bears this weekend, and the winner of the Ivy League will be decided if the Quakers win out.
The Tigers have a shot to get themselves right back in the thick of things, though, if they can take care of business in New Haven and Providence.
Saturday's game at Brown will decide whether Princeton can go to the NCAA Tournament this year or will have to watch either the Bears or the Quakers in the Big Dance.
The last time the two teams met, Princeton lost its best all-around player, junior forward Spencer Gloger, to an ankle injury. Princeton was able to stay close near the end of that game, pulling within three in the last 30 seconds, but could not come away with a win.
Since the loss of Gloger, however, the team's offense has been clicking — a key to squeezing a W out of fast-paced Brown this weekend.
"It's just time," head coach John Thompson said. "As the year progresses our offense looks better. We made a conscious effort to be more precise [after the loss to Brown]."
Brown was able to force a score of 80-73 against Princeton, much higher than the Tigers would normally allow when running their offense correctly.
The main factor that kept Princeton out of the win column last time was Brown's inside game. Princeton's starting sophomore center Judson Wallace was plagued by foul trouble, and Brown's prolific scoring had much to do with its 61 percent shooting from the field, most of it from within a few feet of the basket.
Brown also went to the free throw line a whopping 29 times in its first meeting with the Tigers, making 23 of them in what was, by all estimates, a tightly called game. Considering the Bears' proficiency from the line, Princeton will have to be more than careful down low and on defense. The roles of Wallace and junior center Konrad Wysocki will be pivotal as they try to control Brown's interior game.
"Their post players did dominate us," Thompson said. "We have to do a better job of guarding in the post regardless of who's in there."
Brown's win over the Tigers earlier this season was its first ever at Princeton, making the Bears' all-time record 1-52 against the Tigers on the road.
What does this all mean? Nothing, if Friday night does not work out like Princeton hopes. If the Elis upset the Tigers, Princeton is out of the race, and Penn and Brown would be the only teams with shots at the title. Of course, if Penn beats Brown on the same night, Penn will have secured a virtual lock on the Ivy League title and the NCAA berth that goes along with it.
Yale will be no cakewalk for the Tigers, but the Elis have not followed up their tri-champion season a year ago with a very solid performance on the court this year.
Yale wins the games it is supposed to win, but loses to the top teams in the league — Princeton, Brown, and Penn. In essence, Yale is a middle-of-the-pack team that can not win when it is challeneged.
The greatest strength of the Elis is their rebounding. They lead the Ivy League in conference-play offensive and defensive rebounding, while holding its opponents to the lowest field goal percentage among the any of the Ivy League teams.
"They are a good defensive team, and they work at it," Thompson said. "We can execute and help each other out to get quality shots and open layups."
Brown's games against Penn and Princeton this weekend will most likely decide who will represent the Ivy League in the NCAA tournament. But if the weekend works out like the Tigers want it to, no one will know what to expect come time for the Big Dance.
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