While many senior theses represent interesting and sometimes personal issues, most do not find themselves as headlines in the evening news. But Richard Brand '02, senior in the Wilson School, foretold in his thesis the ouster of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
"Recent events in Venezuela indicated something was going on," politics professor Paul Sigmund said. "Richard was correct because he has been very attentive of the issues."
One week after Brand submitted his thesis to his adviser, Chavez was ousted from power and detained.
Part of the prediction states, "Chavez's administration and regime would be toppled in the face of popular uprising, discontent within the military and international opposition — particularly opposition from Washington."
The interim government established by Pedro Carmona, head of Venezuelan business association Fedecarmas, lost military support when Carmona decided to shut down the government, resulting in Chavez's return to power after only two days.
Brand said he was not shocked by the return of Chavez to power.
"President Chavez is a fighter, one who is unlikely to give up power without flexing a little muscle," he explained in his thesis.
These accurate predictions were only a concluding point in Brand's 90-page thesis — "Democracy in Peril: The Rise of Hugo Chavez and Venezuela's Fifth Republic Movement." The heart of the thesis is an analysis of Chavez's political ideology.
"I thought he was a fascinating political creature and I wanted to learn more about him, so I kept tabs on him," Brand said. "So when it came time to choose a topic for my thesis, Chavez seemed only logical."
Brand has been closely following Chavez's rise to power since 1997. He first met Chavez as an intern for the Associated Press in Caracas, Venezuela, when he was assigned to cover Chavez's announcement of his presidential candidacy.
Brand said he was lucky to witness the event because he felt it was the first indication that this unknown individual had any shot of winning the presidential election.
A New York City resident, Brand's family originated from Venezuela. His interest in journalism and Venezuelan roots prompted him to seek the internship in Caracas.
In 1994, Chavez used his position as a paratrooper to lead a military rebellion against then-president Carlos Andres Perez. Chavez was imprisoned for the next two years and freed when Perez was impeached for corruption charges.
After his release, Chavez created the Fifth Republic Movement and in 1998 launched his presidential campaign.
"Chavez is a very divisive political figure," Brand said. "He is a very anti-status quo, reactionary politician. He rose to power by exploiting a weakened political system, widespread poverty and massive inequality."
In November, Brand noticed Chavez's popularity ratings plummeting, falling from a 60-percent approval rating to less than 30-percent — recently less than 20-percent — during a brief period. Brand returned to Venezuela to explore reasons behind the discontent.
He found there was new opposition to Chavez as a result of 49 enabling laws passed by Chavez, giving him increased control over the Venezuelan economy and expanded presidential powers beyond what was explicitly approved in Chavez's own 1999 constitution.
"Since he was elected president, Chavez has partly defended his 1992 coup by actually challenging the military to perform its duty and overthrow him should he ever abandon his supporters and become a despot without popular support," Brand said in his thesis. "Those challenges will come back to haunt him."
What has been left behind in the wake of the recent coup is a nation more socially and politically divided, with a fragmented military.
With his return to power, Chavez promises that he will not persecute anyone, nor will he conduct any witch hunts, pledging to make necessary changes within the government.
"Chavez has said he would rather become a martyr than abandon his social revolution," Brand said. "There is definitely a lot of fear in the hearts of many people."
On campus, Brand is a member of the men's lightweight crew team and former president of the Princeton Press Club.
Next year, Brand will be working for the Miami Herald covering Miami Beach politics, crime and culture.
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