It is an off-year election that has been largely overshadowed by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the continuing anthrax scare, but New Jersey residents will cast their ballots today in a gubernatorial race in which both campaigns have attempted to retain their focus on mainstay plank issues.
"[The race] is absolutely based on issues; 62 percent of likely voters said they were basing their decisions on the issues while only 18 percent on leadership," said Monika McDermott, the associate director of the Star-Led-ger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll.
A consensus in the polls shows Democrat Woodbridge mayor Jim McGreevey with a consistent double-digit lead on Republican candidate Bret Schundler.
Despite McGree-vey's wide lead, the Schundler campaign is optimistic. "We're positive" going into tomorrow, said Bill Krell, a Schundler spokes-man.
"We've been on Philadelphia networks, New York, CN8 tonight, and we've had fantastic events like Mercer today," Krell said. The Schundler campaign recently picked up New York mayor Rudy Giuliani's (R) endorsement and staged events with New York governor George Pataki (R).
Schundler — the former mayor of Jersey City — has staged several comebacks in his political career, most recently against former Republican Rep. Bob Franks to win his party's nomination earlier this year. The improbable victory over Franks brought national attention to a potential new conservative Republican base in New Jersey.
Polls have indicated that despite a focus on crisis-management in the wake of the attacks, voters are basing their decisions overwhelmingly on the issues rather than on leadership traits. Both campaigns have separated themselves on issues such as education, abortion, gun control, fiscal policy and Trenton government restructuring.
"What we've been finding is Jim McGreevey is more popular than Schundler. As people have gotten to know Schundler, his negatives have been increasing," McDermott explained. "Schundler has a polarizing effect on voters."
The McGreevey campaign said it has focused primarily on platform issues.
"The race is about the important issues facing the state and who is the best qualified to lead the state," said Sean Walsh, a McGreevey campaign spokesman. "Polls underscore the fact that Jim McGreevey shares values of mainstream New Jersey on issues such as quality of schools and protecting our community."
In televised debates and commercials, McGreevey has criticized Schundler's education policy of increasing the focus on private and charter school systems as reckless and wrong for New Jersey's children and future. Schundler has portrayed McGreevey as being at the mercy of special interests, shrouding him in tax-and-spend liberal rhetoric. Schundler has positioned himself throughout his campaign as an "empowerment Republican" and a politician committed to working "outside of the box," to lead the state out of an impending economic recession.
"Leadership is an issue," Krell said. "We're heading into some tough times and Bret is a guy who has common sense and government sense. It takes a leader to find innovative ways to cut taxes, give people more with less and not just throw money at the problem."
McDermott said she predicts about 15 percent of voters have not made up their mind going into tomorrow, while 90 percent of likely voters will not change their previous decisions.
Though strategists are uncertain about the voter turnout and the effects of Sept. 11 and the bioterrorism scares, McDermott said she believed there was nothing specific to indicate a deviation from normal voting patterns.
"[There is] nothing in the poll numbers to indicate turnout should be abnormally low," McDermott said. "Voters are as interested as before; the turnout should be within the average range."
Both campaigns have planned extensive get-out-the-vote efforts across the state to ensure their base voters cast their ballots.
"The Democratic party has developed a comprehensive GOTV effort and is working hard in recent weeks to get people to the polls," Walsh said. The McGreevey campaign is committed to "making sure people in the state know what is at stake."
The Schundler campaign has planned a traditional GOTV effort focusing on literature drops, phone banking and advertisements.
Both candidates have light Election Day schedules planned, with McGreevey casting his ballot and spending most of his time in the hospital with his pregnant wife, Walsh said. Schundler is voting and "meeting and greeting" in Jersey City, Krell said.
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