Study finds rising mortality rates for middle-aged white Americans

Mortality rates have been increasing for middle-aged white Americans since 1998, according to an Oct. 29 study by Woodrow Wilson School professors Angus Deaton and Anne Case.

Deaton was awarded theNobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science for his work on consumption, poverty and welfareon Oct. 12.

The paper noted that mortality rates had been steadily decreasing for decades prior to 1998, but that this trend reversed for white Americans aged 45-54. No other developed country or racial group in America has seen a similar turnaround.

Morbidity rates –rates of illness and pain –have risen along with mortality rates, according to the paper. Middle-aged white Americans have shown higher levels of drug use for pain, beginning in the 1990s, and they have also seen higher instances of suicide and drug abuse.

This study shows that the major causes of death for middle-aged white Americans are suicide, drug poisoning, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. Though white males among all levels of educational attainment saw an increase in mortality rates, those of a lower educational background saw the most marked increase in mortality rates.

Deaton and Case conducted this study by analyzing mortality data from the Center of Disease Control, and they gathered morbidity data from various national surveys in the United States.

Case did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Deaton explained that he came across this project when looking at general morbidity rates and suicide rates for the American population. He added that he began to look at overall mortality rates and discovered the results that he would eventually publish in the paper.

It is possible that the increase in mortality rate, especially for those with lower education, is tied to economic malaise and the increased availability of pharmaceutical drugs, Deaton said. However, he noted that at this state in the study, these possibilities are purely speculative.

One issue the study raises is addiction to prescription drugs, Deaton said.

“It is important to make sure that pharmaceutical companies behave well and do not give drugs to people who don’t really need them,” Deaton said.

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He added that many effective ways to treat addiction do not currently exist, which can be very devastating for families.

Jonathan Skinner, a professor of economics at Dartmouth who was involved in reviewing the study but was not involved in its research, said that this study is significant because it starkly shows that despite improvements in health care technology, people are still showing declining health.

“It was a brilliant study,” he said. “Case and Deaton are amazing and deserve to be recognized. Princeton is very lucky to have them.”

Deaton said that he and Case plan on continuing this research by investigating the geographical distribution of increasing mortality rates and the relationship it has with economic decline. He added that they will look at other age groups in future studies.

This research was carried out under a grant from the National Institute of Aging and a grant from Princeton’s Roybal Center for Translational Research on Aging. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Nov. 2.