And the Oscar goes to ...

It's that time of year again. While New Jersey shivers from the bitter cold, Tinseltown is heating up in anticipation of the biggest, most heavily publicized event of the year: the 79th Annual Academy Awards. The ceremony, which could bulge out to four hours or more, is set for broadcast Sunday at 8 p.m. This year, the down-to-earth talk show host and comedienne Ellen Degeneres is hosting the event. Her predecessors, Jon Stewart and Chris Rock, did not garner the ratings the Academy had desired, and the hope is that Degeneres' brand of humor will resonate with women, who already comprise a majority of the telecast audience. Even if you're not a fan of Degeneres, there is a very good reason to watch this year's Oscars — or at least tune in towards the end. Some years, there is one sure thing for the big prize of Best Picture (like "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King") or two rivals (such as "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain" last year). Sunday, however, is more or less a five-way race.

Entertainment Weekly gave its current frontrunner, "Babel," a mere 24 percent chance of winning, while "The Queen," in last place, has a 15 percent chance. Just a week ago, "The Departed" held the top spot. And we can't rule out "Letters from Iwo Jima" or "Little Miss Sunshine," either. Other Oscar handicappers like Oscarwatch.com and The New York Times' Carpetbagger blog have come to similar conclusions: It's anybody's game. Each movie has its strengths and weaknesses; no film completely overshadows the others, and no film can be completely ruled out.

"The Queen" is thought to be the least likely to win, partially because it is a very British tale and partially because it, befitting Queen Elizabeth II's vision of England, is quiet and dignified. In its favor, it is clear "The Queen" will be the only nominee in this category to carry away an acting award by the night's end, boosting its chances at Best Picture, since actors comprise the largest segment of the Academy's voters for the category.

"Little Miss Sunshine" might have a better shot, having already taken the Screen Actors Guild's top prize, and it is also likely to win Best Original Screenplay. It is probably the most enjoyable of all the nominees. The conspicuous lack of a best director nomination, however, hurts the film's chances. Only one film in the last 50 years ("Driving Miss Daisy") has won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.

"The Departed" has enjoyed the widest and most successful release of all the nominees; it is the only one to garner more than $60 million in box-office revenue and has earned almost as much as all its competitors combined. Furthermore, Martin Scorsese is behind the picture, and many agree that he is long overdue for Best Picture recognition. Still, the film's rampant and sometimes purposeless violence may work against it, especially when "Letters From Iwo Jima," by contrast, portrays gory combat with true humanity.

That is not to say that "Letters From Iwo Jima" faces no obstacles; on the contrary, it must fight the disadvantage of having the smallest release, earning under $8 million so far. It is also in a foreign language and might be unjustly dismissed as "just another World War II movie."

As many commentators are eager to point out, "Babel" is the only film that closely examines modern politics and culture. America is highly politicized, and recurrent news stories about turmoil abroad makes "Babel" the most relevant of the nominees. "Babel" also has the advantage of a Golden Globe Best Drama win, but neither of the winners of the top prize at the past two years' Golden Globes has won the Best Picture Oscar; the other Golden Globe winner this year, "Dreamgirls" for Best Musical or Comedy, wasn't even nominated for best picture. Additionally, "Babel" is the worst-reviewed film of the nominees; according to rottentomatoes.com, only 68 percent of its reviews were positive.

That's the breakdown. The contest can only have one victor, to be revealed only in the electrifying uncertainty that leads up to the final, climactic moment: "And the Oscar goes to..."