Mike McCurry '76, a former adviser to John Kerry and Bill Clinton, said at a Wilson School panel Monday that the president's missteps in Iraq would constrain his options during his second term.
"Spreading freedom is a noble cause," McCurry said. "It's just too bad he has put us in so big a hole."
Moderated by politics professor Larry Bartels, who directs the University's Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, McCurry and three other panelists offered a range of answers to the question: What will President Bush do next?
The panel explored issues ranging from Iraq and foreign policy to the distinct challenges of being a second-term president in order to evaluate President Bush's plans for his second term in office.
Wilson School lecturer and former Oklahoma congressman Mickey Edwards predicted Bush would continue to pursue an ambitious vision in foreign policy, citing his inaugural address last month.
"He will reach out in fairly bold ways," he said. "He's not going to tread cautiously."
Edwards downplayed the obstacles to improving conditions in Iraq and predicted that Bush would restore diplomatic relationships frayed by war.
Politics professor David Lewis also predicted Bush would be ambitious, while presidential scholar Fred Greenstein said that second-term complacency would sap the president's leadership style.
"Being in office has a numbing effect; your guard drops," said Greenstein, an emeritus professor of politics. "Bush will become comfortable in the Oval Office. You have some missteps as a result of being on some sort of a high."
Edwards, Greenstein and the other panelists stressed that the presidential second term comes with opportunities as well as dangers. Freedom from reelection worries makes bold proposals possible, they said, but it also increases the risk that he will lose sight of the need to build public support for his policies.
Edwards, a Republican, highlighted the flexibility afforded by Bush's second-term status.
"What he is likely to achieve can be viewed in an entirely different light, because he is not running for election again," he said. "This is important because he doesn't have to worry about strategizing."
Greenstein predicted that at least one Supreme Court vacancy would occur during Bush's term. He said the president would have to strike a balance between his preference for conservative ideologues and his desire to win Senate confirmation for his nominees.
"He needs people who are fireproof, but not lightning rods," Greenstein said. "This decision presents exquisite difficulty, because the temptation will be to play to the evangelical base."
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