2004 will be a struggle for football

The football program spews a lot of propaganda about how any team can beat any other on its schedule and how the Ivy League is characterized by parity. And this newspaper tries to avoid bias (usually too far in the positive direction) in articles on the football team. Let's correct both.

First off, parity. That's a joke. Penn has won six or more of its seven Ivy games in five of the last seven years, including the last four. The Quakers have never had a losing league record in that span. In fact, Penn and Harvard have finished 1-2 in the league the last three seasons. That's all of college for most seniors here.

Penn and Harvard are the class of the league. That's been made clear to me after seeing 23 of the last 29 Princeton football games (including a streak of 19 straight games sandwiched by misses of games in Dartmouth).

The rest of the league shuffles around from year to year depending on returning talent, new coaches and transfers. Since Princeton is the only Ivy school that doesn't accept transfers regularly, we are on the bottom of the heap there.

What this all adds up to is an amazingly predictable outcome in Ivy League football games. Last season, the 'Prince' ran weekly picks of Ivy League games for three weeks. The result of that left the race tighter than a post-grade inflation curve. One of our writers was 17-1, and another was 16-2 (there were a few non-league opponents, so the numbers don't quite add up). Umm, I'd have to say that the league was fairly easy to predict.

So I say before delving into some predictions. Here it goes anyway.

Princeton's first game is against Lafayette. As with most openers for Princeton, the Leopards have already played two games. Last week, Joe McCourt was named Patriot League Player of the Week after racking up 104 yards on 24 carries in a win over Georgetown. He also was the key part of an offense that crushed Princeton's defense last year, converting third down after third down and tiring the Tigers into submission. There should be fewer conversions on third this year because of an improved Princeton secondary, but McCourt will be too tough to handle, and Princeton will start off the season 0-1.

After dealing with McCourt's grinding this Saturday, the Tigers will make the headache of a trip to San Diego to play . . . San Diego. Outside of being in San Diego, the only cool thing about this match-up with a team coming off an 8-2 season is that Jim Harbaugh is the opposing coach. The travel will tucker out the Tigers, and they'll limp home licking their wounds after loss number two.

Columbia is the first Ivy League opponent of the season and will be a great game. It probably won't be as good as last season, when Columbia won on a Hail Mary after driving half the field in what seemed like two or three seconds. There's no way Roger Hughes will let his team blow another huge lead like it did last year at home. Princeton comes out of Harlem with its first win, beating a vastly improved Lion squad that will go on to a winning season in the league. It will be the first game between the two teams that will not have a completed Hail Mary pass at the end of a half.

Colgate. Jamaal Branch was the best running back in I-AA last year, so you can imagine what he'll be like this year. 1-3.

Brown's Nick Hartigan is probably the best pure running back in the league. Princeton's Jon Veach is probably a better total package, but handing Hartigan the ball is the best play any team in the league has. Last year Princeton pulled out a win that I didn't predict against Brown, but this year will probably not have a 50-plus yard fumble return for a touchdown or a 99-yard touchdown pass to help the Tigers out. Hartigan is still Brown's only real weapon, and a revamped Princeton secondary means the Bears will have to use him very predictably. Princeton's linebackers will eat him alive, even though he'll get enough carries to make his yardage impressive. The win for Princeton makes them 2-3.

I'll refer to my previous argument that Harvard and Penn will be duking it out for the title again this year. Last year's Princeton-Harvard game in Cambridge, however, was the most exciting I have ever seen, and I wouldn't be surprised by another close one this season. Still, Princeton falls to a hard 2-4.

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Cornell had better be scared when it plays Princeton this year. The Big Red doesn't have a lot of weapons in the arsenal. Last year's game would have been a shutout if it weren't for a late-game touchdown pass that beat an inexperienced defensive back, who was just in because it was a blowout. Easy win for a fired-up squad, and Princeton is 3-4.

The other league powerhouse is coming to town. Penn lost league player of the year Mike Mitchell to graduation, but Princeton will be intimidated by the league's big dogs (despite all the tough talk before the game) and will fall apart after "coming out flat," a favorite cliché of teams that don't have a mouse's chance of getting away from a python in a glass box. 3-5.

Yale may have the most predictably strong tandem at running back and quarterback. Yale wouldn't have made its amazing comeback last year if the current Princeton secondary were playing then. But that doesn't mean they'll lose this year. Princeton doesn't have the offensive firepower (especially at wide receiver, which is probably the least-tested corps in the league) to match up with Yale's experienced D. 3-6.

I have only seen Dartmouth play once in my three previous years here, so I am not terribly familiar with the team. Dartmouth lost its best player, Kasey Kramer, to graduation, and I don't see the team getting far from the league cellar. And since the game is being played south of the Arctic Circle this year, Princeton will pull out the win. That makes a 4-6 overall season and a 4-3 Ivy League season.

Once the Tigers lose their non-conference games, all they'll care about is the league record, so their propaganda will call it a successful season. I'll try to be unbiased and say that's just the way it's going to be.