During the past weeks, the Taliban — accused of harboring Sept. 11 terror suspect Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist network — have surrendered to the northern alliance in major cities throughout Afghanistan.
Over the weekend, the northern alliance claimed it had captured Kunduz, the Taliban's last stronghold in the north. And yesterday, reports indicated that hundreds of U.S. Marines were entering Kandahar, the home base of the Taliban.
The Bush administration had warned that the war in Afghanistan could take many months, but the rapid collapse of the Taliban in recent weeks has challenged policymakers to discuss the next step in America's war on terror.
Wilson school professor Wolfgang Danspeckgruber, who teaches WWS 450: Theory and Practice of International Diplomacy, identified particular obstacles U.S. officials may encounter in coming weeks and months.
The first challenge will be "a relative power vacuum which will result from the vanishing of the prime — and all unifying — enemy of the other warlords and armed groups; many of whom . . . are unified in the northern alliance," Danspeckgruber said in an e-mail.
"The second challenge is that apparently the situations in Kunduz and Mazar-[e-Sharif] are much less orderly than reported," Danspeckgruber noted, alluding to the treatment of captured Taliban soldiers by the northern alliance. He said American leadership must pay careful attention to its strategic positioning with northern alliance members, so as not to disturb the fragile support the U.S. has received from countries like Pakistan.
Danspeckgruber further said the West could face a major humanitarian problem in the coming months. He cited as some of those potential problems the looming winter, incomplete demographic information and difficulty at setting up any sort of "law and order" in war-torn Afghanistan.
In response to news of the Taliban's imminent fall, students and faculty have discussed what the next step for the U.S. should be.
"[The U.S.] ought to lend our tactical and strategic capabilities and, as of now, on-the-ground knowledge to help effectively establish 'law and order,'" Danspeckgruber said.
"Without continuing U.S. involvement, a power vacuum . . . on the ground will develop, which is readily filled by those who have the power and arms now," he said. "Only a clear U.S. message and determined stance will be able to alter that sad but predictable course of events."
Jennifer Carter '03, a representative of the Princeton Committee against Terrorism, offered a similar analysis.
The U.S. "must wrest control of major areas from the warlords and ensure that a stable, multi-ethnic government is created," Carter said in an e-mail. "There needs to be some sort of reconciliation process so that the country doesn't descend into the violent recriminations and chaos that allowed the Taliban to come to power in the first place."
In addition to discussing the war in Afghanistan some have begun to debate whether the U.S. should expand the attack on terrorism to other countries. Iraq has often been cited as one of the main sponsors of terrorism and has been condemned for trying to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Wilson school assistant professor Gary Bass said a major future challenge to U.S. foreign policy will be "to prevent the further spread of weapons of mass destruction." He said a broad effort to "make the American people safe within [their] own country" would have to include arresting the development of weapons of mass destruction. But he did not remark specifically on Iraq.
The United States should expand the war on terrorism to Iraq "if necessary and if we get clear indications that Iraq had indeed been a serious sponsor of events, organizations or people related to 9/11. But only then," Danspeckgruber said.
He also noted that the use of special ground forces would probably be more effective than aerial bombardment.
Sam Spector '03, a PCAT representative, said the U.S. should pursue Iraq now.
"There has been disturbing evidence recently released that the Iraqi regime, like the Taliban, has sponsored terrorist training camps," said Spector. "Hussein's regime is a prime target for removal."
Representatives of the Princeton Peace Network, which says it opposes the military campaign, could not be reached.
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