Analysts evaluate Bush's first 12 weeks

Coming on the heels of the 2002 budget and the release of the 24 crew members of the US spy plane held in China, President Bush's administration is within striking distance of the first benchmark standard by which to judge — the first 100 days.

In an attempt to distill and analyze the Bush administration to date, five political scientists participated in an animated round-table discussion yesterday at the University co-sponsored by the Wilson School and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

Joining University politics professor Fred Greenstein were Harvard University professors David Gergen, Ronald Heifetz and Barbara Kellerman. Norman Ornstein — a frequent political commentator on public television — also presented an early appraisal of the presidency to an capacity crowd.

Though he called the Bush presidency "a work in progress," Gergen separated the administration into three early phases.

"It was an extraordinarily smooth transition," Gergen noted, "and he far exceeded his expectations."

Following Bush's statements on carbon-dioxide emissions in mid-March, Gergen said he felt questions arose about Bush's abilities as a manager and as a leader.

Though he ran on the slogan of compassionate conservatism in an election where everything — the House, Senate, local legislatures and Supreme Court — was up for grabs, Gergen said Bush was "a president talking center, governing right."

In the most recent foreign policy issue concerning a U.S. spy plane held in China — which all participants called an episode rather than a crisis — Bush acted "very much in mainstream tradition and it worked quite well to his credit," Gergen said.

"It has been a fascinating beginning [after] a fascinating election," Ornstein noted.

Though he faced what seemed to be an insurmountable challenge following the 36-day marathon post-election dispute between him and former Vice-President Al Gore, it is surprising that Bush has done so well, Ornstein said.

Ornstein attributed this early success to "strategic" moves on Bush's part to focus on specific goals: education and tax cuts.

With a tax proposal, an education package and a host of other political bills already on the table, Ornstein looked to a bright future for Bush.

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If all of these projects are passed by August, "that is an extraordinary achievement by any standard, for two years, let alone eight months," Ornstein said.

Kellerman focused on the personal and political influences President Bill Clinton and Bush's father have on the Bush administration.

"I think in the end George W. will be increasingly aware that he is carrying the legacy of a family," Kellerman said. "This is not the last Bush politician, and he must look to the past, present and future."

Bush must also look to the increasing role of the economy, and what Kellerman described as the legacy of the Clinton administration. "It's the economy stupid," Kellerman said, quoting Clinton's famous words from the 1992 presidential campaign.

Learning from his father's misuse of political capital following the Gulf War, Bush has approached the early part of his presidency in a largely strategic manner, Ornstein said.

Haifetz and Greenstein picked up on Bush's characteristic traits.

After taking an informal poll of the audience, Haifetz said Bush has not provoked much interest in political affairs among a representative group of the populace.

Despite the characteristic criticisms of Bush's supposed lack of intellectual curiosity, Greenstein noted "he has a lot of political skills."

In addition to praising the early achievements, all of the participants outlined flaws and fissures already present in the administration.

Despite surrounding himself with knowledgeable and experienced Washington insiders, Ornstein said that Bush has not "moved very rapidly in filling out the rest of the government."

Ornstein pointed to the Office of Management and Budget, where only two staffers were available to compile the 2002 budget.

On foreign policy, Ornstein also noted that the three primaries — National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld '54 — all have conflicting opinions. He said it will be interesting to see how Bush balances the views of his experts.

As a kudo to Bush, the participants noted that the administration did not budge on its early tax-cut goal.

"I think it is an abdication on the part of Congress," Gergen said amid applause, "to define your budget before your needs."