Disappointing losses damage prospects for two Princeton alums

Much was at stake for both Bill Bradley '65 and Steve Forbes '70 in yesterday's New Hampshire primary — the nation's first presidential primary. Bradley's loss to Vice President Al Gore and Forbes' third-place finish behind Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Texas Gov. George W. Bush cast doubt on the future of the Princetonians' respective campaigns.

Bradley, who had been leading the race against Gore in New Hampshire polls in January, spent the last week trying to claw his way back after a disappointing performance in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 24.

Forbes had a strong showing in Iowa and was looking to repeat the performance. However, this time he also faced strong opposition from McCain — who did not participate in Iowa — as well as Bush.

Close second

Though preliminary returns showed Bradley five points behind Gore, the Princetonian's close second-place finish will allow him to stay in the race, at least for now, according to University politics professor Fred Greenstein.

"Bradley's got as much money as Gore, and he can put up a fight," he said. "I think he'll go on," Greenstein said, "but I don't think he'll get [the nomination]."

Stanley Kelley, a University emeritus professor of politics, said he expects Bradley will be able to capitalize on the close results of the New Hampshire primary. "Bradley's going to be able to make it look like he came from behind," he said. "He's certainly still in the race."

Greenstein said, however, that he does not expect Bradley to fare well in next month's southern primaries. "I'm not sure those in the South will feel like they have anything in common with him," Greenstein said.

McCain's focus on the Granite State paid off, as he turned in a strong victory after spending 73 days in New Hampshire and skipping the Iowa caucuses.

Forbes' third-place finish, on the other hand, was disappointing, Greenstein said. "He did very well in Iowa," he noted. "This is not an outstanding finish for him."

By defeating the enormous war chest of the Bush campaign, McCain's showing is a major achievement, but Greenstein said that McCain is unlikely to be able to continue that success.

"I consider McCain a real outside chance, more so than Bradley. I don't see how McCain could [win the nomination]," Greenstein said.

Kelley said he expects McCain's victory will be very important in the later primaries. "McCain will get a lot of positive press from his win," he said. "People will be trying to explain this victory."

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For the rest of the Republican field, the results of last night's vote may not affect campaign strategies dramatically. Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes, both of whom are running at the bottom of the Republican pack, will most likely stay in the race for publicity, Greenstein said. Forbes, he said, could remain in the race almost indefinitely because of his vast financial resources.

Though they present no real threat for the nomination, all three candidates can influence the political landscape for the front-runners, Greenstein said. "They could pull lifestyle conservatives from any of the top two, and Forbes can go negative," he said.

Kelley agreed, and noted that both the Democratic and Republican races are far from over. "We're going to have an interesting campaign, at least for a while," he said. "If Bradley or Forbes had been badly defeated, I don't think I could say that."

The New Hampshire primary was first held in 1952, and since then, every elected president except Bill Clinton has won there.