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E-PrinceAs a freshman, Ravi Sangisetty ’03 did not strike friends as a natural candidate for Congress. Now he has tossed his hat into the ring as the sole Democrat in the race for Louisiana’s third congressional district and one ...(back to the article)
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Although Sangisetty is leading the fundraising race at this point, he's going to have a tough hill to climb. Why? Because he's running against Jeff Landry, a Cajun candidate that is using the "guns, God, and (anti-)government" platform, which is sure to earn votes in a VERY conservative district comprised of the River Parishes and lower Acadiana (read: Cajun Country). Furthermore, the popular former Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives and retired National Guard Major General Hunt Downer is expected to throw his name into the hat soon, which will all but crowd out Sangisetty's chances.
As much as I hate to say it, Ravi will probably need to, at the very least, play the "God" card to have a shot of making a runoff against either Downer or Landry. However, his lack of name recognition in the area and the "D" that follows his name won't help him in an uber-conservative district. The only way I can see him having any chance is if either Downer decides not to run or Landry drops out of the race.
Don't count Ravi out. He has intelligence, obviously, but also terrific people skills. One feels that they can trust Ravi. The oil spill is going to make party connections is Washington more valuable than it was a month ago. I hope he succeeds.
While UFool points out some important hurdles, I think he misses what people are looking for in a candidate. People don't want elected officials who use party-line platforms or "play cards" (be they 'god' cards or otherwise). People are sick of being misled with smoke and mirror tactics, and want a candidate who advances the interests of the region (plain and simple) and restores their faith in country and government. I think the traits UFool identifies as strong points in the Downer and Landry campaigns represent political trickery that voters are ultimately going to see through, and reject.
While I love P-Padre's and Hammerhead's optimism, I can tell you as a native Louisianian (and one that lives and, in some instances, works among residents of the Third Congressional District) that most of the voters will continue to fooled by "the smoke and mirrors" that you say they will finally abandon. Voters there, for the most part, are--and I hate to say this--simpletons and will buy into the conservative talking points Landry or any other politician feeds them. Very few of them will see though the haze and vote intelligently. This is why I think Ravi will be crowded out by Jeff Landry. Sure, Ravi has the people skills and the intelligence, but that will not be enough to win him this election, especially since he is running against an ethnic Cajun and a well-respected former state legislator.
A quick note about Hunt Downer: He ran for governor in 2004 and lost. Prior to this, he was a well-liked and highly-praised Speaker of the House. All indications say that he would have made a decent governor. His main problem was that he didn't have name recognition outside of Baton Rouge and the Houma/Thibodaux area. In fact, the only parishes he carried were Terrebonne (parish seat: Houma) and Lafourche (parish seat: Thibodaux), the largest parishes in the Third Congressional District. Downer does NOT need talking points to win this election. His military and political experiences speak for themselves and can win over voters without much explaining on his part.
Assuming Downer enters the race, he will be the early favorite to win. Frankly, I think he can win the election outright in the primary because he is so well-liked and well-respected by the voters in the area. That said, I would still put my money on a Downer/Landry run-off because Iberia and St. Mary Parishes will support their homeboy, Landry. If Downer doesn't run, Ravi might pick up 30-35% of the vote, but his lack of name-recognition and his inability (or unwillingness) to pandering to the voters' sensibilities will hurt him in the long run. Ravi needs a couple more Republicans (other than Downer) to enter the race so they can fight amongst themselves while he solidifies his base and builds his public profile.
I wish Ravi nothing but the best of luck, but he's got a very hard row to hoe here. If nothing else, he can use this as a learning experience. If he doesn't win, he will have set himself up for future political successes à la Bobby Jindal and James Perry.
UFool has pretty much summed it up... This district is going with a bad R before a good D this go round.
This is a referendum against the Dems nationally; Ravi will be caught in the crossfire.